3-17-15 – Trading Strategy
3/13/15 – INDL (India) @ $96.81
3/13/15 – JPNL (Japan) @ $52.80
3/16/15 – EPV (Inverse Europe) @ $58.51
– Markets are showing a bit of strength on the rebound. Much different than last week in which the downward movements from Friday continued onto Monday. Volatility continues and the stocks on the watch from last week are still holding on to gains. Focus now is on some other possible opportunities.
EPV (Inverse Europe) filled @ $58.51
– Morning gap down got a better entry, however that was the high for the day. The gap can help or hurt and it’s a 50/50 chance on the open. I prefer to have some profits built in on day one, but that’s not always possible. Fortunately, none of the signals changed as a result of the down day.
- PPO is still up
- Price is above the 20-day moving average (if it drops below I’ll need to sell since this is a counter trend move)
One of my subscribers introduced me to a nice leveraged ETF Chart of Crude Oil. Crude and Natural Gas are very similar markets which is why I only pick one. However, I’ve decided to add Crude to my analysis of the “Energy Sector” to use as an option when investing in that sector. What this means is I will choose either Natural Gas or Crude as possible trades, but never both at the same time. This is very similar to investing directly in Gold or Gold Miners, one but never both.
Stocks on the Watch
DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil)
– Despite Natural Gas staying in a fairly clear sideways movement, Crude has just hit a breakout. It’s too far past a buy point for this sideways consolidation breakout as of today, but it’s one to jump in on if it corrects back close to it’s original buy signal.
DRN (Real Estate)
– After watching the long correction, we have a new signal today. I would normally wait until it crosses all 3 moving averages, but because PPO is up sharply, price has broken out of it’s downward trend, and we’ve broken the 20-day EMA, I think getting in on this a day early is acceptable. I’ve been missing a few opportunities because of the gap up after the buy signal is recognized. This means I can either buy the opening gap, or try to get in a day earlier.
Current Holdings with Open Orders for 3/17/15
Sell INDL (India) Limit @ $109.20 (12.8% Profit)
Sell INDL (India) Stop @ $93.15 (3.73% Loss)
– Decent move up today. Moving up my stop to just below Friday’s low.
Sell JPNL (Japan) Limit @ $56.50 (7.01% Profit)
Sell JPNL (Japan) Stop @ $51.00 (3.41% Loss)
– Moving up my stop close to today’s % gain.
Sell EPV (Inverse Europe) Limit @ $60.00 (2.55% Profit)
Sell EPV (Inverse Europe) Limit @ $57.00 (2.58% Loss)
– Better entry due to today’s morning gap down, but certainly didn’t close where I wanted. I’m only going to allow it to go down half the daily ATR of $1.51 or 1.3% further. If this is going to go up, it shouldn’t go down two days in a row before I know I’m in the wrong.
New Open Orders for 3/17/15
Order Cancel Order
Buy DRN (Real Estate) Stop @ $85.05
Buy DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $82.25
– If you have never seen a “Stop Buy” order, this is an order that will immediately buy at the current market price if the price is at or above $85.05 in this case. Here are the difference scenarios covered.
- Price gaps up above today’s high of $85.03 then I’ll be in at the market
- If price opens lower, but not low enough to hit my limit order, then goes past $85.05 I’ll be in
- If price goes low enough to $82.25 then I’ll get in lower
Either way, if the stock moves too high or two low I’ll be in, otherwise if it stays in between $85.05 – $82.25 then no trade will take place.
- Price has broken out of it’s downward trend lines
- Price is following the longer term up trend
- PPO turned upwards today
- Price is above the 20-day moving average in Purple (I like to see it above all 3, but to account for everyone else seeing the same signal and causing a morning gap, I’m getting in a day earlier)
There is no same day sell order with this type of order. That is fine since DRN is a long trending stock anyway.
Buy SOXL (US Semi Conductors) Limit @ $151.20
Sell SOXL (US Semi Conductors) Limit @ $160.50 (5.52% Profit)
- Nice bounce off the 50-day EMA in Yellow from Thursday
- Price crossed over the 20-day EMA today in Purple
- Price is back in it’s long term uptrend
- PPO turned positive today
Buy UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $2.35
Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $3.05 (29.79% profit)
- Natural Gas is in a sideways correction, so this is buying on the bounce if it hit’s it’s bottom trend line which has been showing strong support lately
Buy DWTI (Inverse Crude) Limit @ $141.27
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude) Limit @ $173.95 (23.13% Profit)
– Price has already broken out from a clear consolidation pattern, however, I’m willing to buy a quick correction if it will get this low. I’m doing the same for Natural Gas, so I only expect one of these to hit.
Most likely this move is already well established and could keep moving up. However if markets are volatile enough there may be a second chance.