4-6-15 – Trading Strategy

4-6-15 Trading Strategy

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

4/2/15 – DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) @ $7.50

Stocks on the Watch for 4-6-15


Here is my Stocks on the Watch video and write-up on what I’m looking at next week.

 

Today’s Updates


YINN (China) Sold @ $44.90 for a 9.51% gain
DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Filled @ $7.50 

– Fairly bullish day Thursday for all the international markets while the US and Gold took on the bears. However, most of these markets had been trending down, so many could have been taking profits due to the 3-day trading weekend.

My fill in DGAZ could have been better, but the 11.98% move, when the average is only 7.35% makes me feel I took the wrong side of this trade. The timing couldn’t have been any worse.

Market Snapshot 4-2-15.

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 4/6/15


Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Limit @ $8.50 (13.33% Profit)
Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Stop @ $6.80 (9.33% Profit)

– I do not like the price action that I saw on Thursday. An opening gap down, with a much lower low for the day. DGAZ closed 11.79% lower which is far above it’s daily trading range of 7.66%. It appears I fell for another fake-out. Because this ETF can move very fast, I have to put in a stop. My stop will be for half the 7.33% daily trading range, just to give it a bit more room on the open with the hope it reverses tomorrow in my favor.

DGAZ 4-2-15

New Open Orders for 4/6/15


Order Cancels Order

Buy RUSL (Russia) Stop @ $27.05
Buy RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $25.75

– RUSL has already gapped up twice. It’s doing so on higher and higher volume as well. Puttin in a stop buy order to get in if it gaps up in the morning and putting in a limit order of 50% the daily trading range of $1.97 if we get a drop to get in at a better price

  • Classic triangle consolidation breakout pattern
  • PPO has been positive the past couple of days
  • Price has broken away from the 20-50 day EMA
  • Gaps up out of a triangle are a solid bullish sign

 

Buy INDL (India) Limit @ $99.60

– INDL had a bearish fake-out last week and has quickly reversed. Even if this is a sideways consolidation, the next stop level is around $109.00 which is plenty of room for a decent profit.

INDL 4-2-15

 

4-2-15 – Trading Strategy

4-2-15 Trading Strategy

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

3/31/15 – YINN (China) @ $41.00

Today’s Updates


BZQ Stopped out @ $94.50 for a 11.36% Loss

Positive day in the markets with the energy and precious metals benefiting the most. Unfortunately my BZQ position was stopped out today only to have almost full recovery at the end of the day. My position in YINN did very well today, so that will help to balance out the loss in BZQ somewhat.

Market Snapshot 4-1-15

I’m VERY TEMPTED to play BZQ (Inverse) Brazil again because looking at the chart of BRZU it seems like tomorrow would be a perfect down day bouncing off the upper downward trend line, but I’m not going to. I will point and laugh if it does fall and I was correct all along, but to trade on that would be a gamblers fallacy to chase. My strategy was wrong, if it drops tomorrow then it’s my fault for setting my stop too low and accounting for the possible fluctuations.

BRZU 4-1-15

I could easily “self justify” buying right back into BZQ tomorrow as a possible double bottom, or a possible bounce off the 50-day EMA (but no positive PPO confirmation). I could use any number of singular technical signals to justify a reason, but I only trade when I have multiple technicals in alignment. I use the B12 Trade Confidence scale to give me an edge in deciding when I get in.

As I’ve shown the past couple of months, the trick is not identifying the pattern to get in, it’s the price stops and price exits on when to get out! That is what makes trading difficult… but not impossible, which is why I am profitable in the long run.

Setting arbitrary or even mathematical stops seems to be getting foiled by this market.

What I’m considering next, is not putting in stops until I’m profitable. If I put in sell orders, they will either because they’ve passed a mental stop price and I’ll put in a market order for the next day, or they are near an existing profit target. 

 

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 4/2/15


Sell YINN (China) Limit @ $44.90 (9.51% Profit)
Sell YINN (China) Stop @ $43.30 (5.61% Profit)

– Trading is an emotional game. With my loss in BZQ, I want to take as much as I can in YINN to offset it. I am pushing up my stop to the low of today and keeping my limit order in. I think YINN could go higher, but with as volatile as the market as been, I need to look at money management and take some wins. If only for the psychology of it.

YINN 4-1-15

New Open Orders for 4/2/15


 

Buy DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Limit @ $7.50 
Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Limit @ $8.50 (13.33% Profit)

DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) appears to be making it’s move to new high ground. With it’s 6 days up so far, I’m going to try and capture a small pull back for tomorrow. Otherwise if it makes it’s big move, I’ll buy at market on Friday.

DGAZ 4-1-15

 

 

4-1-15 – Trading Strategy

4-1-15 Trading Strategy

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

3/27/15 – BZQ (Inverse Brazil) @ $106.61
3/31/15 – YINN (China) @ $41.00

Today’s Updates


YINN (China) Filled @ $41.00

The pinball action of the markets continues like it has been for the past few months with even more unpredictability. My best advice is to either not be in the markets or be willing to take on more risk. The uncertainty has no patterns and previous pricing patterns, such as Junior Gold Miners not holding more than a 4-day up or down streak are taking on new statistical norms. Markets go through phases of impulsive mania, determined panic, and just plane nonsensical. We are seeing corrective movements across many of the markets and nothing of exceptional price action was seen today.

Market Snapshot 3-31-15

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 4/1/15


Sell BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $120.90 (13.4% Profit)
Sell BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Stop @ $94.50 (11.36% Loss)

– My previous stop @ $101.50 would have been stopped out today. I am transitioning to trading by chart invalidation points vs my acceptable profit losses. Brazil is still technically in a down trend, but with the last two up days, if tomorrow is another up day I may have to re-evaluate or hold steady to my $94.50 stop.

BZQ 3-31-15

Sell YINN (China) Limit @ $44.90 (9.51% Profit)
Sell YINN (China) Stop @ $39.20 (4.39% Loss)

– Putting in my stop down where the move started. If the gap is filled then this is most likely not an impulsive move. Otherwise $44.90 should be ab easy target.

YINN 3-31-15

New Open Orders for 4/1/15


– No new orders for tomorrow. Nothing is within the proper buying range and the markets are just too unpredictable to try and play volatility trades currently.

 

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