1-23-15 – Trading Strategy

1/23/15 – Trading Strategy

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

1/21/15 – EPV (Inverse Europe) @ $62.70
1/21/15 – EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) @ $11.35
1/22/15 – EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) @ $25.00

Today’s Updates


EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) filled @ $25.00

I only follow the news on Central Banks, Governments and Wars. The big news was Europe’s official confirmation of their QE bond buying program similar to what the US Fed did for the past few years.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/european-central-banks-stimulus-move-ripples-across-region-1421965143

This explains why EDC is moving so well and why EURL (Europe) has been up for 8 straight days now. This news didn’t help my position in EPV (Inverse Europe), but I believe this could very well be a “buy on the rumor, sell on the news” because 8 days in a row is very difficult for any market to hold without some sell off. I’ll either be able to get out of EPV near even or a small profit. Long term though, I’ll be looking to get into EURL as this long term down trend should end. Markets love when the government prints money and the EU has just committed to doing so.

India (INDL/PIN) and China (YINN) continue to run away like a rocket and I called for a buy on those early on, but was to conservative in my entries due to the volatility. However, with this new move in the EU, I imagine volatility will slow and trends will form. This is where the real money can be made.

EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) does have a good percentage of it’s portfolio in China, so the fact I missed out on YINN is okay since I’m getting a good portion of it with EDC.

Here is the link to Direxion’s EDC Holdings (Click on Target Index):
http://www.direxioninvestments.com/products/direxion-daily-emerging-markets-bull-3x-etf

 

Direxion EDC Target Index

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 1/23/15


Sell EPV (Inverse Europe) Limit @ $63.50
Sell EPV (Inverse Europe) Stop @ $60.40

– Same order as yesterday, but I’m lowering my sell limit to take a small profit. I won’t move my stop any lower. Today’s low was $60.83. The news about the EU policy is out. Hopefully now the news it out the profit takers will try to unload their positions to those who want to capitalize now on the news.

Sell EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) Limit @ $12.00
Sell EWJ (Non Leverage Japan) Stop @ $11.25

– EWJ Moved up .05 today, so I’ll move up the stop by the amount. The low for the day was $11.35. I want to limit any potential loss on this position. I’m keeping my sell order high since I believe this could be a trend to hold on to.

Sell EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) Limit @ $28.15
Sell EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) Stop @ $24.35 

– We are most vulnerable when we get into the trade. Today the position closed up 3.96% for the day. This is a 4 out of 4 on the B12 Trade Confidence Scale (Learn more about this in my Educational Series), but because it’s a pattern break out play I want to give it some room to wiggle before it takes off. Break outs can have sharp reversals to shake people out before they take off sharply, so I’m setting my stop position at 1.5x the daily ATR. I could still take a loss on this position if I get stopped, but I feel it’s worth giving some breathing room so we can take advantage of a much larger move.

Also notice in this chart I have mapped out my ATR Stop and ATR Limit lines. I’m charting 2x the ATR in green for my limit and 1.5x ATR in blue for my stop. This is discussed in my free video “Bonus Indicators for TC2000.”

EDC 1-22-15

Open Orders for 1/23/15


Buy JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) @ Market

or

Buy GDXJ @ Market

– Yes, I usually never do this, but here is my logic. JNUG didn’t drop to my $39.15 level today, and looking at it’s chart, in this recent uptrend, it doesn’t correct for more than 2 days. Normally, it will gap up on day 3. I do take a risk of it dropping after I’m in, but if I compare it to the chart of Gold and Gold is moving up much faster than Gold Miners.

JNUG is a very volatile stock with up to 16% daily trading range for the last week. I feel with the last two down days I’ve built in a safe enough cushion for myself, but if you don’t have the stomach for this kind of risk or the money, seriously consider GDXJ (Non Leveraged Junior Gold Miners) as an alternative. The charts are exactly the same.

JNUG 1-22-15

Looking at the chart of gold, I am officially bullish on Gold. It’s moving up, and it’s moving fast! It’s broken out and held above it’s multi-year down trend for almost a week now.

XAU USD 1-22-15

Buy RUSL @ Market

– Another pattern break out. This is just like EDC, it’s gapped two days in a row now. It may gap lower or higher tomorrow, but I like these patterns so I’m jumping in. ** Disclaimer ** Just like JNUG (Leveraged Junior Gold Miners), this is a volatile market. RUSL (Leveraged Russia) has a daily ATR % of 9%. If that is too much of a possible swing for you, look at getting into RSX (Non Leveraged Russia).

RUSL 1-22-15

I also like BRZU and possibly DGAZ, however, because I will be ensured positions in two more markets tomorrow, that hits my limit of 5.

I don’t like to be in more than 5 of any of the 12 markets at once because it starts to dilute my diversification. I’ll be managing positions from now on instead of entering new ones until they sell or I get stopped out.

1-22-15 – Trading Strategy

1/22/15 – Trading Strategy

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

1/21/15 – EPV (Inverse Europe) @ $62.70
1/21/15 – EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) @ $11.35

Today’s Updates


EPV (Inverse Europe) Filled @ $62.70
EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) Filled @ $11.35

China (YINN) hates me, I missed the trade yesterday by 10 cents and it’s up today over 9%! Yes, this is one of the frustrations of trading.

TMV (Inverse Bonds) – I had the right direction, but again, I bid too low. I may have to take on a bit more risk as my bid was for $24.90 and the low was $25.13

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 1/22/15


Sell EPV (Inverse Europe Limit @ $65.60
Sell EPV (Inverse Eurpe) Stop @ $60.40

– You define your risk/reward ratio by what you will sell your order at for a loss and what it could potentially do as a profit. I believe I’m as close as can be to the HIGH for EURL (Europe) which means EPV shouldn’t drop more than another 2%. Putting in my stop just below the 100-day EMA which held back in late December to limit my potential loss.

EURL is now hitting the top of it’s long term trend line which should provide the resistance needed for a correction and a drive up in price for EPV

EPV 1-21-15

EURL showing it’s over extension. There is a lot of volume behind this which could be an issue, but it’s been up for so many days in a row I would think this move is near exhaustion.

EURL 1-21-15

 

Sell EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) Limit @ $12.00
Sell EWJ (Non Leverage Japan) Stop @ $11.20

Putting in a standard 5% limit order and a stop order near the top of the downward trend. I’m planning on holding this for a longer move if it can hold.

EWJ 1-21-15

 

Open Orders for 1/22/15


 
Buy EDC (Emerging Growth Accounts) @ Market Open

– EDC just gapped out of it’s consolidated triange. These are pattern moves which you have to jump on when you see them. I’ve been missing so many good moves lately that I have to take what I can get. If this move holds, it could have a 10-15% upside at least. It’s daily ATR $ is 3.82%, so even if I get a bad fill, I can keep my losses arond 5%. So we’re looking at a possible 3:1 risk/reward ratio.

EDC 1-21-15

Buy JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) @ $39.15
Sell JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) @ $46.40

– I didn’t get my fill today, but we are even closer to the buy point.

Buy DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) @ $5.65
Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) @ $6.50

– DGAZ was rather tame in it’s movement today. Only moving 7.24% whereas it’s daily ATR % is 22.95%. I’m also noting a new area of price support which is why I’m going to keep my conservative entry. If we’ve hit a bottom, I don’t want to give it much room to run. I’m hoping this is more of a pause before a continued movement downward.

Today’s Chart

UGAZ 1-21-15

Same buy point as today

DGAZ 1-21-15

Buy YINN (China) @ $35.90

– China really got away from me today, but it has a history of large swings. I’ll put in one last bid for yesterday’s close to see if I can capture this move.

YINN 1-21-15

1-21-15 – Trading Strategy

1/21/15 – Trading Strategy

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

No current holdings

Today’s Updates


– No new orders filled today, missed the buy order for YINN by 10 cents. All others blew way past my buy points.

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 1/21/15


No current holdings

Open Orders for 1/21/15


Buy EPV (Inverse Europe) @ $62.70
Sell EPV (Inverse Europe) @ $65.80

– Looking at the chart of EURL (Europe) the over all trend is down, but we’ve had 6 solid up days at a steep angle. We are now approaching the top of the downward trend line. With the overall economic issues in Europe I just don’t see this recent upswing as a start of a long term turn around. Buying at once cent below today’s close.

This is very similar to my play against TMF (20 year bonds) a couple weeks ago, but in this case, I’m expecting a continued bounce in the long term trend direction.

This trade a bit higher risk, but I think my changes are 65-75% in my favor of a small scalp trade.

Here is the downward chart of Europe:

EURL 1-20-15

Here is the chart of EPV (Inverse Europe) Getting in at it’s current price if I can get filled

EPV 1-20-15
Buy JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) @ $39.15
Sell JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) @ $46.40

– I am more bullish on Gold and Gold Miners than ever. We are starting to see the signs of the beginning of a new long term uptrend. It’s at a slight short term extreme, so I’m waiting for one good correction and I’ll hold on longer.

For JNUG I’m setting the sell target higher as I think now it’s time to think longer term. My sell target is just over 18% for the day. I always need to take profits if it can move an extreme amount in a day, if not, I’ll hold on for more.

JNUG 1-20-15

 

Buy EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) @ $11.35

– Japan is showing some conviction. I was stopped out of a bearish view last week and now we’re breaking new ground. This is a 4 out of 4 on the B12 Trade Confidence Scale. It’s moved from a clear pivot point from Jan 6, it’s out of it’s downward trend line, PPO is up and it’s broken above it’s 20 and 50-day moving averages (purple and yellow lines). These are all the keys necessary for a new trend to develop. Putting in a bid for 50% the daily trading range instead of something much less.

I’m bidding on EWJ (non Leveraged Japan) instead of JPNL (leveraged Japan) because the volume in JPNL is way too low. The potential gains are limited as a result, but I’ll be able to easily exit the position because of the much higher volume in EWJ.

EWJ 1-20-15

Buy TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) @ $24.90
Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) @ $26.40

– Going against bonds again??!?!? Yes, it didn’t work out the first time, and I’m not making this trade out of any special indicators, just speculation. You may not want to follow me on this one, but I wanted to share that I am going to make this trade.

It appears we have some price stalling in TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) and I’ve charted 3 different angles of increasing price levels. When we get to these extremes, the drops can be significant and strong. I don’t think I’m risking a great deal of % on this so I’m taking a chance. If you are a trend follower, this is NOT your kind of trade. Again, this is more of a “gut feeling” from my experience.

Chart of TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) in which I feel is far over extended and ripe for a correction.

TMF 1-20-15

Where I want in at in TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds)

TMV 1-20-15

Buy DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) @ $5.65
Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) @ $6.50

– UGAZ (Natural Gas) hasn’t been dropping consistently like it has been recently. Volatility is picking up. Because I wasn’t able to get back in to the trend due to day’s further gap downward, I’ll try to play some volatility plays like I do in JNUG.

3 solid down days in UGAZ makes for a good volatility trade.

UGAZ 1-20-15

to take advantage of that downward movement, I’ll buy into DGAZ

DGAZ 1-20-15

Buy YINN (China) @ $35.40
Sell YINN (China) @ $37.35

– My order for YINN missed by 10 cents. The low for the day was $35.50. I’m going to keep my order the same today, I still feel it’s at a good corrective level. If it gaps down lower tomorrow then we’ll get a better fill. The Trend is still up and that’s what I want to follow. Putting in a 5% profit sell order just in case it hits.

YINN 1-20-15

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