3-23-18 – Trading Strategy

3-23-18 – Trading Strategy

Current Positions



2/5/18 – 468 TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) @ $21.03 ($9,842 Position Size)
2/7/18 – 727 EPI (India) @ $27.50 ($19,992 Position Size)
2/12/18 – 400 ERY (Inverse Energy Explorer) @ $10.61 ($4,244 Position Size)
2/16/18 – 202 UWT (Crude Oil) @ $26.15 ($5,282 Position Size)
2/20/18 136 YINN (China) @ $37.43 ($5,090 Position Size)
3/5/18 – 130 BRZU (Brazil) @ $53.72 ($6,984 Position Size)

 

Positions I’m Opening


Buy 1500 DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $13.50 ($20,250 Position Size)
Buy 1000 DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop @ $14.00 ($14,000 Position Size)

when filled…

Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $16.00
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $12.50

Positions I’m Closing


Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $24.00 14.12% or ($1,390 Profit)
Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop Limit @ $17.80 15.36% or ($1,512 Loss)

Sell EPI (India) Limit @ $30.00  9.09% or ($1,817 Profit)
Sell EPI (India) Stop Limit @ $25.75 6.36% or ($1,272 Loss)

Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $15.00 41.38% or ($1,756 Profit)
Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $7.00 34.2% or ($1,444 Loss) 

Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Limit @ $33.00 26.20% or ($1,384 Profit)
Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Stop Limit @ $18.75 28.30% or ($1,495 Loss)
Sell YINN (China) Limit @ $54.00 44.27% or ($2,253 Profit)
Sell YINN (China) Stop Limit @ $29.00 22.52% or ($1,146 Loss)
Sell BRZU (Brazil) Limit @ $65.50 21.93% or ($1,531 Profit)
Sell BRZU (Brazil) Stop Limit @ $42.25 21.35% or ($1,491 Loss)

Today’s Update


Markets took a huge hit today with the sanctions announced against China. This freaked out Wall Street because in the short term, it does nothing to help earnings. TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) which is the typical safe haven in uncertainty saw the biggest gains. Surprisingly Gold also declined.

 

Current Performance


The sanctions announced by Trump today spooked the markets and could create a longer term trade war. Weather the markets are permanently spooked or will wake up to see these dips as buying opportunities remains to be seen. I will need to look at more bearish positions to offset some of these drawdowns.

What I’m Watching


EDC (Emerging Markets) broke below a key support level of $128 today, but looking at the bigger picture it’s also consolidating. Because of this, I’m going to wait until it breaks out in one direction or the other and not just take the break below the support level as the only signal.

 

Positions I’m Opening


Buy 1500 DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $13.50 ($20,250 Position Size)
Buy 1000 DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop @ $14.00 ($14,000 Position Size)

when filled…

Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $16.00
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $12.50

Looking at the chart of DRN (Real Estate) you can see it’s been in a clear downtrend, however with the global markets turning down, this move down could be a great time to take advantage of another leg lower by trading DRV (Inverse Real Estate).

Chart and orders for DRV (Inverse Real Estate)

Positions I’m Closing


Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $24.00 14.12% or ($1,390 Profit)
Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop Limit @ $17.80 15.36% or ($1,512 Loss)

TMF is the typical safe haven during uncertainty and it jumped today. If it crosses above $19.75 it could be significant, but this move doesn’t negate the many months of downward movement we’ve seen.

Chart and orders for TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) 

I have a very wide stop on this, but I may pull out early if this momentum picks up.

Sell EPI (India) Limit @ $30.00  9.09% or ($1,817 Profit)
Sell EPI (India) Stop Limit @ $25.75 6.36% or ($1,272 Loss)

EPI has been in a decline for a week now and stopped one cent away from my stop. Just waiting to see if it’s stopped out tomorrow. Despite the wide stop, it’s retraced a large amount of gains that lasted most of all last year.

Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $15.00 41.38% or ($1,756 Profit)
Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $7.00 34.2% or ($1,444 Loss)

ERX was the least affected by today’s announcement, but the slight dip does work in my favor. Overall, it’s still in a sideways consolidation, so more waiting until it commits to a direction.

Chart and Orders for ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies)

Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Limit @ $33.00 26.20% or ($1,384 Profit)
Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Stop Limit @ $18.75 28.30% or ($1,495 Loss)
UWT is pushing higher and close to my profit target. I’d like to take off any profits I can to try and offset some of the current drawdowns if I get stopped out.

Sell YINN (China) Limit @ $54.00 44.27% or ($2,253 Profit)
Sell YINN (China) Stop Limit @ $29.00 22.52% or ($1,146 Loss)

Since the sanctions were directed right at China, YINN was hit the hardest. It remains to be seen if this is long term. If we get a big follow through tomorrow then I may have to pull out early. However I put this wide stop in place of such occurrences and nothing really confirms this is a long term downward move that can’t recover.

Sell BRZU (Brazil) Limit @ $65.50 21.93% or ($1,531 Profit)
Sell BRZU (Brazil) Stop Limit @ $42.25 21.35% or ($1,491 Loss)

BRZU is sitting firmly on the 100 day moving average in Orange. Not profitable, but being brought down with the rest of the markets.

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One Response to 3-23-18 – Trading Strategy

  1. diefa94 says:

    Hello! I’m a new at using the B12 Trading Confidence Scale and I have a question regarding to your open positions. I see you are going to invest on DRV and I want to know if you use the B12 Trading Confidence Scale on the DRN or the DRV or both?

    Thanks and have a nice trade!