Monthly Archives: March 2018

3-29-18 – Trading Strategy

3-29-18 – Trading Strategy

Current Positions



2/5/18 – 468 TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) @ $21.03 ($9,842 Position Size)
2/12/18 – 400 ERY (Inverse Energy Explorer) @ $10.61 ($4,244 Position Size)
2/16/18 – 202 UWT (Crude Oil) @ $26.15 ($5,282 Position Size)
2/20/18 136 YINN (China) @ $37.43 ($5,090 Position Size)
3/5/18 – 130 BRZU (Brazil) @ $53.72 ($6,984 Position Size)
3/23/18 – 

 

Positions I’m Opening


Buy 909 LABD (Inverse Biotech) Limit @ $3.65 ($3,318 Position Size)
Buy 833 LABD (Inverse Biotech) Stop @ $3.80 ($3,165 Position Size)

when filled…

Sell LABD (Inverse Biotech) Limit @ $4.50
Sell LABD (Inverse Biotech) Stop Limit @ $2.80

 

Positions I’m Closing


Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $24.00 14.12% or ($1,390 Profit)
Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop Limit @ $17.80 15.36% or ($1,512 Loss)

Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $15.00 41.38% or ($1,756 Profit)
Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $7.00 34.2% or ($1,444 Loss) 

Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Limit @ $33.00 26.20% or ($1,384 Profit)
Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Stop Limit @ $18.75 28.30% or ($1,495 Loss)
Sell YINN (China) Limit @ $54.00 44.27% or ($2,253 Profit)
Sell YINN (China) Stop Limit @ $29.00 22.52% or ($1,146 Loss)
Sell BRZU (Brazil) Limit @ $65.50 21.93% or ($1,531 Profit)
Sell BRZU (Brazil) Stop Limit @ $42.25 21.35% or ($1,491 Loss)
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $16.00 13.88% or ($1,950 Profit)
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $12.50 11.03% or ($1,550 Loss)

Today’s Update


Market volatility has been fluctuating wildly since last week. Many markets are shedding a good deal of their profits and it’s unknown how long this will last. The strong increase in TMF is showing money is certainly moving to conservative investments, but the second safe haven, Gold, isn’t seeing much love either.

In these volatile markets there are only a few strategies that work. Lower the position size and widen the profit targets and stops to ride out the moves, stay in cash, or try and take advantage of the shorter downturn moves and look for cheaper buy-ins.

Having been involved in many drops in the market, playing downside moves can be extremely tricky because they reverse so fast, thus I’m going to keep my stops wide, but I’ll scape off any profitable positions that occur quickly.

Sold EPI (India) Stop Limit @ $25.75 6.36% or ($1,272 Loss)

Unfortunately the long uptrend finally concluded and stopped me out on the 24th. However this is happening to all markets and it’s about riding it out and possibly buying at better price levels.

 

 

Current Performance


With the global markets all turning down I’ll be riding out my existing positions with wide stops and looking to take any decent profits where they can be had. UWT (Crude Oil) isn’t moving as in sync and with uncertainty in the markets that can certainly drive up energy prices. DRV (Real Estate) really got a boost with the Fed projecting further interest rates, but lets see how much is built in. I am keeping very wide stops and low dollar entries to try and ride out the volatility for however long it may last.

I’m looking at adding a breakout downward move in EDC (Emerging Markets) for a short term profit play.

Positions I’m Opening


Buy 909 LABD (Inverse Biotech) Limit @ $3.65 ($3,318 Position Size)
Buy 833 LABD (Inverse Biotech) Stop @ $3.80 ($3,165 Position Size)

when filled…

Sell LABD (Inverse Biotech) Limit @ $4.50
Sell LABD (Inverse Biotech) Stop Limit @ $2.80

Looking at LABU (Biotech) this is a 4/4 on my B12 Trader Confidence scale as I discuss in my Educational Series. We have a breakout below all the moving averages, a key support level has been broken and we’ve broken out of a very strong uptrend on heavy volume.

As a result I’m going to get in this for a downward play by trading LABD (Inverse Biotech) with the many other markets getting hit, this one is getting drug down now as well.

LABU 3-28-18

Chart and orders for LABD (Inverse Biotech)

Using an OCO (Order Cancels Order) to ensure I get a fill tomorrow.

Positions I’m Closing


Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $24.00 14.12% or ($1,390 Profit)
Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop Limit @ $17.80 15.36% or ($1,512 Loss)

TMF is climbing back up to the key $19.75 resistance level. It’s broken past the two major moving averages so I can’t stay in this much longer. I still have to see if it can break it’s previous support level.

Chart and orders for TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) 

I have a very wide stop on this, but I may pull out early if this momentum picks up.

 

Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $15.00 41.38% or ($1,756 Profit)
Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $7.00 34.2% or ($1,444 Loss)

ERX is making another drop below the key $28.00 level, but not breaking out in any particular direction so I’ll continue to hold.

Chart and Orders for ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies)

Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Limit @ $33.00 26.20% or ($1,384 Profit)
Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Stop Limit @ $18.75 28.30% or ($1,495 Loss)
UWT cam very close to my profit target before turning over. I may have to take some profits here to offset some of the drawdowns from the other positions just to be safe.

Sell YINN (China) Limit @ $54.00 44.27% or ($2,253 Profit)
Sell YINN (China) Stop Limit @ $29.00 22.52% or ($1,146 Loss)

China continues to be the target of sell-offs as the trade rhetoric continues, but weather or not it’s really going to hold long term will have to be seen. China is an economic powerhouse that could easily ride out any perception that a few sanctions will affect it. Technically though, I’ve setup a wide stop to try and allow for this. I don’t like the fact that it keeps dipping below my entry so if it recovers near where I entered I may just exit because the directional advantage is no longer here.

Sell BRZU (Brazil) Limit @ $65.50 21.93% or ($1,531 Profit)
Sell BRZU (Brazil) Stop Limit @ $42.25 21.35% or ($1,491 Loss)

BRZU is drifting lower. If I get any decent recover I may exit to limit losses, there doesn’t seem to be much bullish opportunity in these markets.

Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $16.00
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $12.50

The fed speak is really propping up real estate. Huge volume on Friday with a correlatedd move higher.

Chart and orders for DRV (Inverse Real Estate)

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3-23-18 – Trading Strategy

3-23-18 – Trading Strategy

Current Positions



2/5/18 – 468 TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) @ $21.03 ($9,842 Position Size)
2/7/18 – 727 EPI (India) @ $27.50 ($19,992 Position Size)
2/12/18 – 400 ERY (Inverse Energy Explorer) @ $10.61 ($4,244 Position Size)
2/16/18 – 202 UWT (Crude Oil) @ $26.15 ($5,282 Position Size)
2/20/18 136 YINN (China) @ $37.43 ($5,090 Position Size)
3/5/18 – 130 BRZU (Brazil) @ $53.72 ($6,984 Position Size)

 

Positions I’m Opening


Buy 1500 DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $13.50 ($20,250 Position Size)
Buy 1000 DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop @ $14.00 ($14,000 Position Size)

when filled…

Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $16.00
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $12.50

Positions I’m Closing


Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $24.00 14.12% or ($1,390 Profit)
Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop Limit @ $17.80 15.36% or ($1,512 Loss)

Sell EPI (India) Limit @ $30.00  9.09% or ($1,817 Profit)
Sell EPI (India) Stop Limit @ $25.75 6.36% or ($1,272 Loss)

Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $15.00 41.38% or ($1,756 Profit)
Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $7.00 34.2% or ($1,444 Loss) 

Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Limit @ $33.00 26.20% or ($1,384 Profit)
Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Stop Limit @ $18.75 28.30% or ($1,495 Loss)
Sell YINN (China) Limit @ $54.00 44.27% or ($2,253 Profit)
Sell YINN (China) Stop Limit @ $29.00 22.52% or ($1,146 Loss)
Sell BRZU (Brazil) Limit @ $65.50 21.93% or ($1,531 Profit)
Sell BRZU (Brazil) Stop Limit @ $42.25 21.35% or ($1,491 Loss)

Today’s Update


Markets took a huge hit today with the sanctions announced against China. This freaked out Wall Street because in the short term, it does nothing to help earnings. TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) which is the typical safe haven in uncertainty saw the biggest gains. Surprisingly Gold also declined.

 

Current Performance


The sanctions announced by Trump today spooked the markets and could create a longer term trade war. Weather the markets are permanently spooked or will wake up to see these dips as buying opportunities remains to be seen. I will need to look at more bearish positions to offset some of these drawdowns.

What I’m Watching


EDC (Emerging Markets) broke below a key support level of $128 today, but looking at the bigger picture it’s also consolidating. Because of this, I’m going to wait until it breaks out in one direction or the other and not just take the break below the support level as the only signal.

 

Positions I’m Opening


Buy 1500 DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $13.50 ($20,250 Position Size)
Buy 1000 DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop @ $14.00 ($14,000 Position Size)

when filled…

Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $16.00
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $12.50

Looking at the chart of DRN (Real Estate) you can see it’s been in a clear downtrend, however with the global markets turning down, this move down could be a great time to take advantage of another leg lower by trading DRV (Inverse Real Estate).

Chart and orders for DRV (Inverse Real Estate)

Positions I’m Closing


Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $24.00 14.12% or ($1,390 Profit)
Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop Limit @ $17.80 15.36% or ($1,512 Loss)

TMF is the typical safe haven during uncertainty and it jumped today. If it crosses above $19.75 it could be significant, but this move doesn’t negate the many months of downward movement we’ve seen.

Chart and orders for TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) 

I have a very wide stop on this, but I may pull out early if this momentum picks up.

Sell EPI (India) Limit @ $30.00  9.09% or ($1,817 Profit)
Sell EPI (India) Stop Limit @ $25.75 6.36% or ($1,272 Loss)

EPI has been in a decline for a week now and stopped one cent away from my stop. Just waiting to see if it’s stopped out tomorrow. Despite the wide stop, it’s retraced a large amount of gains that lasted most of all last year.

Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $15.00 41.38% or ($1,756 Profit)
Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $7.00 34.2% or ($1,444 Loss)

ERX was the least affected by today’s announcement, but the slight dip does work in my favor. Overall, it’s still in a sideways consolidation, so more waiting until it commits to a direction.

Chart and Orders for ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies)

Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Limit @ $33.00 26.20% or ($1,384 Profit)
Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Stop Limit @ $18.75 28.30% or ($1,495 Loss)
UWT is pushing higher and close to my profit target. I’d like to take off any profits I can to try and offset some of the current drawdowns if I get stopped out.

Sell YINN (China) Limit @ $54.00 44.27% or ($2,253 Profit)
Sell YINN (China) Stop Limit @ $29.00 22.52% or ($1,146 Loss)

Since the sanctions were directed right at China, YINN was hit the hardest. It remains to be seen if this is long term. If we get a big follow through tomorrow then I may have to pull out early. However I put this wide stop in place of such occurrences and nothing really confirms this is a long term downward move that can’t recover.

Sell BRZU (Brazil) Limit @ $65.50 21.93% or ($1,531 Profit)
Sell BRZU (Brazil) Stop Limit @ $42.25 21.35% or ($1,491 Loss)

BRZU is sitting firmly on the 100 day moving average in Orange. Not profitable, but being brought down with the rest of the markets.

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3-19-18 – Trading Strategy

3-15-18 – Trading Strategy

Current Positions



2/5/18 – 468 TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) @ $21.03 ($9,842 Position Size)
2/7/18 – 727 EPI (India) @ $27.50 ($19,992 Position Size)
2/12/18 – 400 ERY (Inverse Energy Explorer) @ $10.61 ($4,244 Position Size)
2/16/18 – 202 UWT (Crude Oil) @ $26.15 ($5,282 Position Size)
2/20/18 136 YINN (China) @ $37.43 ($5,090 Position Size)
3/5/18 – 130 BRZU (Brazil) @ $53.72 ($6,984 Position Size)

 

Positions I’m Opening


  • No new orders for Monday

Positions I’m Closing


Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $24.00 14.12% or ($1,390 Profit)
Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop Limit @ $17.80 15.36% or ($1,512 Loss)

Sell EPI (India) Limit @ $30.00  9.09% or ($1,817 Profit)
Sell EPI (India) Stop Limit @ $25.75 6.36% or ($1,272 Loss)

Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $15.00 41.38% or ($1,756 Profit)
Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $7.00 34.2% or ($1,444 Loss) 

Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Limit @ $33.00 26.20% or ($1,384 Profit)
Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Stop Limit @ $18.75 28.30% or ($1,495 Loss)
Sell YINN (China) Limit @ $54.00 44.27% or ($2,253 Profit)
Sell YINN (China) Stop Limit @ $29.00 22.52% or ($1,146 Loss)
Sell BRZU (Brazil) Limit @ $65.50 21.93% or ($1,531 Profit)
Sell BRZU (Brazil) Stop Limit @ $42.25 21.35% or ($1,491 Loss)

Today’s Update


Markets continued to drift lower this week. Nothing of a major sell-off, but just grinding out time an waiting for profits.

 

Current Performance


The small percentage drawdowns are adding up to a negative portfolio currently. Markets aren’t giving much to work with as they appear exhausted from the great runs we’ve had recently. Going to hold onto these positions until something better comes along.

Positions I’m Closing


Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $24.00 14.12% or ($1,390 Profit)
Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop Limit @ $17.80 15.36% or ($1,512 Loss)

TMF shot up dramatically today breaking out of it’s downward trend channel. If this has a follow through day I may have to consider selling out early as a bottom would have been confirmed.

Chart and orders for TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) 

I have a very wide stop on this, but I may pull out early if this momentum picks up.

Sell EPI (India) Limit @ $30.00  9.09% or ($1,817 Profit)
Sell EPI (India) Stop Limit @ $25.75 6.36% or ($1,272 Loss)

Big intraday volatility today, but still it broke past my original entry. Have to see if this was a one day fluke or we’ll see further downside movement.

Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $15.00 41.38% or ($1,756 Profit)
Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $7.00 34.2% or ($1,444 Loss)

ERX continues in this volatile sideways movement and is back up above it’s key support level. It’s not dramatically higher so I’m not worried about by position yet.

Chart and Orders for ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies)

Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Limit @ $33.00 26.20% or ($1,384 Profit)
Sell UWT (Crude Oil) Stop Limit @ $18.75 28.30% or ($1,495 Loss)
UWT remains flat as it’s working out a triangle consolidation. It’s still within the existing uptrend so I’m okay.

Sell YINN (China) Limit @ $54.00 44.27% or ($2,253 Profit)
Sell YINN (China) Stop Limit @ $29.00 22.52% or ($1,146 Loss)

YINN is back into profitable territory after a small correction.

Sell BRZU (Brazil) Limit @ $65.50 21.93% or ($1,531 Profit)
Sell BRZU (Brazil) Stop Limit @ $42.25 21.35% or ($1,491 Loss)

BRZU still refuses to make much progress and is forming a triangle consolidation. All to do now is wait for the trade to develop.

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