Monthly Archives: October 2017

10-24-17 – Trading Strategy

10-24-17 – Trading Strategy

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Current Positions



9/25/17 – 3000 ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) @ $11.01 ($33,030 Position Size)
9/27/17 – 833 TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) @ $20.93 ($17,434 Position Size)
10/2/17 – 61 LABU (Biotech) @ $85.65 ($5,224 Position Size)
10/5/17 – 187 RUSL (Russia) @ $53.02 ($9,911 Position Size)

Positions I’m Opening


Buy XIV (Inverse VIX) Limit @ $100.00 ($12,000 Position Size)
Sell XIV (Inverse VIX) Limit @ $112.50
Sell XIV (Inverse VIX) Stop Limit @ $87.50

Positions I’m Closing


 

Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $12.00 8.99% or ($2,970 Profit)

Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $24.50 17.06% or ($2,974 Profit)
Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop Limit @ $19.70 or ($1,025 Loss)

Sell LABU (Biotech) Limit @ $100.00 15.67% or ($826 Profit)
Sell LABU (Biotech) Stop Limit @ $61.25 or ($1,537 Loss)

Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $58.00 9.39% or ($931 Profit)
Sell RUSL (Russia) Stop Limit @ $45.00 15.13 or ($1,500 Loss)

Today’s Update


Market Snapshot 10-23-17

Markets globally are looking at a slight downturn. Now the magnitude of what this will be is completely unknown, but not surprising. We have been breaking all time highs many times this month and some kind of correction is certainly due. Volatility spiked today causing a decent 3.14% drop in XIV (Inverse VIX). If we see this happen again tomorrow then we can assume there is profit taking occurring at a minimum.

For me, the real sign will be when SOXL (US Semi Conductors) starts to turn down. It’s the one internal US market that hasn’t lost momentum. The US market is usually last to move, but it’s clear global markets are shedding some profits which will drag the US down eventually.

Performance Update


performance 10-23-17
3 of my positions actually went down today, but it was ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) that benefitted. It’s my largest holding as well, so dollar-wise it’s holding up against the bearish moves of my remaining portfolio. I wouldn’t conclude that it’s a perfect uncorrelated asset, but I’m going to leave this in here since it’s benefitting from the downward global market moves.

What I’m Watching


SOXL (US Semi Conductors) continues to rise while every other US market declined or is running flat. Since I have liquidated many of my positions, I may look at a short term play in SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors) as this has been a rather stretched move and the rest of the markets are signaling lower moves ahead.
SOXL 10-23-17
UGAZ (Natural Gas) has been in decline for some time and broke through a key support level which is now being tested. There is an opportunity if it breaks through this resistance level for an upside move.
UGAZ 10-23-17

Positions I’m Opening


Buy XIV (Inverse VIX) Limit @ $100.00 ($12,000 Position Size)
Sell XIV (Inverse VIX) Limit @ $112.50 12.5% or ($1,500 Profit)
Sell XIV (Inverse VIX) Stop Limit @ $87.50 12.50% or ($1,500 Loss)

XIV 10-23-17
 
Positions I’m Closing

Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $13.00 10.26% or ($1,815 Profit)
Sell ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $11.00 6.70% or ($1,185 Loss)

ERX is almost at a new low. It’s close to breaking below $28.00 which would mean substantial profits. At this point, I’m going to wait. With the global markets all turning lower today, I have to at least give this a chance to correct more in my favor.

ERX 10-23-17

Chart and orders for ERY (Inverse Energy Exploration Companies) 

ERY 10-23-17

Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $24.50 17.06% or ($2,974 Profit)
Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop Limit @ $19.70 or ($1,025 Loss)

Bonds are usually up when equities are down and today we saw that particular move. Small recovery today in TMF, but a long way to go still.

TMF 10-23-17

 

Sell LABU (Biotech) Limit @ $100.00 15.67% or ($826 Profit)
Sell LABU (Biotech) Stop Limit @ $61.25 or ($1,537 Loss)

LABU continues to decline on it’s multi-day bearish move. This could be the canary in the coal mine signaling what the rest of the US market will be doing soon as this is leading the way lower.

LABU 10-23-17

Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $58.00 9.39% or ($931 Profit)
Sell RUSL (Russia) Stop Limit @ $45.00 15.13 or ($1,500 Loss)

RUSL has declined but is now testing the lower trend channel. Now to see if it breaks down even further.

RUSL 10-23-17

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