Monthly Archives: November 2016

11-31-16 – Trading Strategy

11-31-16 – Trading Strategy

Current Positions


11/14/16 – DRV (Inverse Real Estate) @ $15.15 ($18,937 Position Size)
11/16/16 – 5 VXX (VIX) Dec 16 $25 CALLs @ $4.75 (2,375 Position Size)

Positions I’m opening


Buy RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $74.00 ($15,857 Position Size)
Buy RUSL (Russia) Stop @ $78.00 ($10,636 Position Size)

when filled…

Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $83.00
Sell RUSL (Russia) Stop Limit @ $67.00

Buy TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $23.40 ($20,000 Position Size)
Buy TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop @ $24.00 ($18,000 Position Size)

when filled…

Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $26.00
Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop Limit @ $22.00

Positions I’m selling


Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $17.00 12.21% or ($2,214 Profit)
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $13.95 7.92% or ($1,436 Loss)

Sell 5 VXX (VIX) Dec 16 $25 CALLs @ $8.00 ($1,625 Profit)

Today’s Update


market-snapshot-11-30-16

Nice market diversity today and the big news is OIL! OPEC agreed to cuts the today day after yesterday in which it appeared there was a major deadlock! I was squeezed out of ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) because I played it as a consolidated breakout and pull in my full $20k trade amount with a tight stop, as opposed to my wide stops with a huge amount of room to grow. BIG MISTAKE!

Yesterday’s news leak was pure manipulation, scaring out all they could for a quick buy and a huge move up today. I feel like a sucker, not because I fell for the move, but because again, I took a greedy position with a tight stop knowing these have been volatile markets and not keeping the wide stops that I have been able to take many profitable trades out of.

As you can see, huge move down yesterday followed by today’s explosive move higher. Putting my stop below $31 and cutting my position size in half to $10k would have been the right strategy and it’s what I’ve been doing all along.

I now can credit two major trades this month due to greed really cutting out a huge amount of profits I worked hard to get.

erx-11-30-16

Positions I’m opening


Order Cancels Order (OCO)
Buy RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $74.00 ($15,857 Position Size)

Buy RUSL (Russia) Stop @ $78.00 ($10,636 Position Size)

when filled…

Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $83.00
Sell RUSL (Russia) Stop Limit @ $67.00

First, I’m not going to miss out on these trades so I’m putting in an OCO (Order Cancels Order) to ensure a fill. Second, I’m putting a very wide stop and adjusting my entry size depending on my fill.

RUSL broke out of a key resistance level of $74.00 with the spike up in Oil. Today’s news was significant enough to have at least two more bullish days of effect if not longer until more manipulates news comes out. This time my strategy is falling back to what works and that’s adjusting my position size so I can keep wide stops to prevent an early stop of my position.

rusl-11-30-16

Buy TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $23.40 ($20,000 Position Size)
Buy TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop @ $24.00 ($18,000 Position Size)

when filled…

Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $26.00
Sell TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop Limit @ $22.00

TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) has been in a sideways movement for almost two weeks now and with today’s dip lower it looks like this downtrend will continue. There are certainly very good explanations that will justify a long term down trend in TMF, so I’m going to enter now with a wide stop just in case there is some recovery.

tmf-11-30-16

Chart and orders for TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) for tomorrow

tmv-11-30-16

Positions I’m selling


Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $17.00 12.21% or ($2,214 Profit)
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $13.95 7.92% or ($1,436 Loss)

Finally a breather in this position. DRN is still in it’s consolidation, but not much time left before the downside breakout move should occur.

drn-11-30-16

DRV (Inverse Real Estate) chart and orders for tomorrow

drv-11-29-16

Sell 5 VXX (VIX) Dec 16 $25 CALLs @ $8.00 ($1,625 Profit)

Pretty much a break even day in volatility, still waiting for the spike higher.

vxx-11-30-16

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11-30-16 – Trading Strategy

11-30-16 – Trading Strategy

Current Positions


11/14/16 – DRV (Inverse Real Estate) @ $15.15 ($18,937 Position Size)
11/16/16 – 5 VXX (VIX) Dec 16 $25 CALLs @ $4.75 (2,375 Position Size)

Positions I’m opening


  • No new orders for tomorrow. I haven’t been filled in the last two days so I’m going to wait again for better entry points.

Positions I’m selling


Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $17.00 12.21% or ($2,214 Profit)
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $13.95 7.92% or ($1,436 Loss)

Sell 5 VXX (VIX) Dec 16 $25 CALLs @ $8.00 ($1,625 Profit)

Today’s Update


market-snapshot-11-29-16

 

Sold ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $33.02 7.79% or ($1,556 Loss)

ERX opened up with a large gap lower below my original stop limit of $34, I ended up selling at 12:30PST for $33.02 for a loss. This was most likely due to a surprise move down in Crude Oil since the rumors are continuing to swirl about oil production cuts discussions failing again.

erx-11-29-16

What I’m Watching


PIN (India) continues higher but I don’t want to be chasing in these markets with all the surprise moves we’ve been seeing, I’m not going to continue entering orders as this is already up for 3 days in a row now.

pin-11-29-16

SOXL (US Semi Conductors) is showing signs of turning over, but now to see if it will be a small move or the more realistic turnover that should be coming since there is little financial justification for this to continue higher.

soxl-11-29-16

SPXL (S&P 500) didn’t lock in a new high, but it was a lower low than we’ve seen in a couple of days. Just waiting to see if momentum will be dying. I’m thinking out loud if I am biased when looking at the chart, but most of this has been due to sector rotation so I’m not holding my breath this is going to keeping climbing higher.

spxl-11-29-16

 

Positions I’m selling


Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $17.00 12.21% or ($2,214 Profit)
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $13.95 7.92% or ($1,436 Loss)

DRN is now on it’s 3rd day up and closed above the $19.00 resistance level. I’m fairly negative in DRV (Inverse Real Estate) as a result, but with the early signs the US markets could be turning over, I’ll continue to hold out for the correction.

drn-11-29-16

Chart and orders for tomorrow in DRV (Inverse Real Estate)

drv-11-29-16

Sell 5 VXX (VIX) Dec 16 $25 CALLs @ $8.00 ($1,625 Profit)

Nothing much new to report here. Volatility remains flat, just waiting for things to progress.

vxx-11-29-16

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11-29-16 – Trading Strategy

11-29-16 – Trading Strategy

Current Positions


11/14/16 – DRV (Inverse Real Estate) @ $15.15 ($18,937 Position Size)
11/16/16 – 5 VXX (VIX) Dec 16 $25 CALLs @ $4.75 (2,375 Position Size)
11/16/16 – ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) @ $35.81 ($19,982 Position Size)

Positions I’m opening


Buy PIN (India) Limit @ $19.13 ($20,000 Position Size)
Sell PIN (India) Limit @ $19.80 3.50% or ($700 Profit)
Sell PIN (India) Stop Limit @ $18.50 3.29% or ($658 Loss)

Positions I’m selling


Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $17.00 12.21% or ($2,214 Profit)
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $13.95 7.92% or ($1,436 Loss)

Sell ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $40.00 11.70% or ($2,338 Profit)
Sell ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $34.00 5.05% or ($1,010 Loss)

Sell 5 VXX (VIX) Dec 16 $25 CALLs @ $8.00 ($1,625 Profit)

Today’s Update


market-snapshot-11-28-16

US Markets gave up some gains today while the international markets faired quite well. BRZU (Brazil) was quite noticeable, but the move in JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) / UGLD (Gold) can’t be ignored. There just isn’t enough trade information to decide if this is a more affordable pullback, or we’ve put in a bottom. This basically means patience is needed this week to see if these trends hold or not.

UGAZ (Natural Gas) exploded higher today with a gap opening move. It looks like I was able to identify the direction, but a day too late. Price gapped far above my limit order and is hitting a Keltner Top. More on this below.

Options trading – I have done very well in the past few months selling options premium, but the greedy snafu in AMAZN is still ringing in my head. I’m just not seeing a great demand for premium out there so I’m going to remain patient and wait for volatility to pick up so I can start selling premium again.

What I’m Watching


BRZU (Brazil) has bled off a lot of gains accumulated over the past many months in just a short period of time. Most of this is due to the speculation effect the change in US presidential policy will have. The big issue with this, is many don’t realize how little power the presidency has in the US. It still takes many hundreds of individuals to agree for major changes to occur, otherwise it’s just rhetoric which causes uncertainly and volatility in the markets. Regardless of the politics, some of these moves have been out of panic and not fundamentals.

From a technical perspective, BRZU had a good day today, but no significant changes technically. We haven’t broken any short term previous highs, it hasn’t yet recovered past the 100-day EMA in orange and PPO hasn’t turned positive. So this will stay on my watchlist until we get something that stands out more clearly as a solid directional move.

brzu-11-28-16

JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) had a solid day today, but nothing again to break into song about. We’re in a short term consolidation with $6.00 being a key support level to break for a downside move. You will see on the chart that PPO is at a negative 24% which is rather extreme, a PPO turning positive could be a nice indication we have a bottom in this market and it’s time to play an upward move.

However, I’ll be very cautious about holding onto any upward move for more than a couple of days. Every recent bullish move has been short lived and should best be looked as a better opportunity to go short and play something like JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) than a complete reversal of this many month downtrend.

jnug-11-28-16

UGLD (Gold) could get very interesting real quick. India is removing the 1,000 and 500 rupe note which are the highest denomination bills they have in circulation. This combined with the fact the government is limiting how much individuals can cash in for smaller denominations is creating somewhat of a financial havoc. A better way to convert these larger notes are investments in Gold, which India is already a major buyer of.

From the chart, the trend is down, and it’s down bad with little signs of reversal, but a PPO turnover from negative to positive will make me a buyer. There are some external sources that may justify a longer term hold if this does turn, but again, no technical validation just yet, so I’m going to wait.

ugld-11-28-16

UGAZ (Natural Gas) just blew by my buy order today and has hit a Keltner Top. Keltner Tops are rather infrequent events because they can only occur during very fast and big moves. I talk about these in my interview on 52traders.com.

I would be more than happy to jump into DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) tomorrow as a result, but I’m trying to exercise patience. So if UGAZ has another double digit gain tomorrow I will buy DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) for a $20k position near market close.

ugaz-11-28-16

Positions I’m opening


Buy PIN (India) Limit @ $19.13 ($20,000 Position Size)
Sell PIN (India) Limit @ $19.80 3.50% or ($700 Profit)
Sell PIN (India) Stop Limit @ $18.50 3.29% or ($658 Loss)

PIN gapped above my limit order today and didn’t have an intraday dip. It’s still not far away, so I’m going to put in the same order again for tomorrow to see if I get lucky.

pin-11-28-16

Positions I’m selling


Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $17.00 12.21% or ($2,214 Profit)
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $13.95 7.92% or ($1,436 Loss)

DRN (Real Estate) is continuing it’s bullish run against me, but it’s coming close to testing a $19.00 resistance level. The overall trend is down and my stop in DRV (Inverse Real Estate) is further away for a reason and that is to let me ride out any volatility in this market because I’m in this for a longer term play.

drn-11-28-16

Sell ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $40.00 11.70% or ($2,338 Profit)
Sell ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $34.00 5.05% or ($1,010 Loss)

Ugly move down today which almost stopped me out. I jumped in after the $34.00 resistance level was broken, and this may be another fake breakout. Both Crude Oil and Natural Gas were up today though, so we’ll see if this is just a lagging response or if I’m done for in this trade tomorrow.

erx-11-28-16

Sell 5 VXX (VIX) Dec 16 $25 CALLs @ $8.00 ($1,625 Profit)

Small pickup in volatility today, but not the major move I’m waiting for. Keeping the same orders for tomorrow.

vxx-11-28-16

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