Monthly Archives: June 2016

7-1-16 – Trading Strategy

7-1-16 – Trading Strategy

What I’m In


6/24/16 – UGLD (Gold) @ $13.65 ($5,255 Position Size)
6/29/16 – Short VGK (Europe) @ $45.69 ($20,000 Position Size)
6/29/16 – UGAZ (Natural Gas) @ $46.13 ($5,997 Position Size)
6/29/16 – 30 EWZ (Brazil) Jul 15 $31/$33 Vertical Call Spread @ $.25 ($750 credit)

What I’m Buying


  • Still the same market correlation, no new entries or breakouts to give reason to add to the number of current positions.

What I’m Selling


Sell UGLD (Gold) Limit @ $14.90 17.22% or ($904 Profit)
Sell UGLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $11.50 15.75% or ($827 Loss)

Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $55.00 19.23% or ($1,153 Profit)
Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Stop Limit @ $33.50 27.38% or ($1,641 Loss)

Buy to Cover VGK (Europe) Limit @ $43.50 4.79% or ($958 Profit)
Buy to Cover VGK (Europe) Stop Limit @ $47.50 3.96% or ($792 Loss)

Buy to cover 30 EWZ (Brazil) Jul 15 $31/$33 Vertical Call Spread @ $.10 ($450 Profit)

  • Buy to cover Jul 15 $31 Call
  • Sell Jul 15 $33 Call

Today’s Update


Market Snapshot 6-30-6

Day 3 of the market correlation rebound. We haven’t fully retraced the brexit fall-out just yet. Friday is the last day before a 3-day US Holiday, meaning the US Stock Market will be closed on Monday.

It almost seems ripe that tomorrow will be a down day, but will it be down for the globe like we’ve been seeing?

Looking at the ATR levels, we’re well within the 50th percentile of normal ranges, so we’re starting to lose some steam in this bounce.

From a technical perspective, there isn’t anything new breaking out, but I will point out that BRZU (Brazil) which I’m playing AGAINST by selling calls in EWZ (Non Leveraged Brazil), is now testing previous highs, so this will be interesting to see if we get a breakout higher and I have to pull the rip cord on my EWZ position or not?

Looking to close out a second month in a row with decent profits. I am going to manage my trades as a portfolio to try and keep this streak of wins going instead of looking at each trade as a home run potential.

BRZU 6-30-16

What I’m Selling


Sell UGLD (Gold) Limit @ $14.90 17.22% or ($904 Profit)
Sell UGLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $11.50 15.75% or ($827 Loss)

Gold if still flirting with the $13.65 level I got in at. Just waiting for a breakout to occur. However, if it’s holding up this strong, despite global equities going higher, I’m seeing this as a sign that this rebound may not be all it’s cracked up to be. There is still money going into gold if it’s not falling while equities are rising. This is a solid sign of strength for the gold market.

UGLD 6-30-16

Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $55.00 19.23% or ($1,153 Profit)
Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Stop Limit @ $33.50 27.38% or ($1,641 Loss)

6% Higher move today means I’m now slightly profitable in this trade. Now another follow through day and I can use this to offset any other positions that may be going negative like my EWZ (Non leveraged Brazil) options trade.

UGAZ 6-30-16

Buy to Cover VGK (Europe) Limit @ $43.50 4.79% or ($958 Profit)
Buy to Cover VGK (Europe) Stop Limit @ $47.50 3.96% or ($792 Loss)

Another decent move against me today, but I’ve been skeptical that all we’re going to get out of a vote that could change the direction of a continent only suffered with two days of trading. Hoping my stop is far enough away not to get triggered before we see if I’m right.

From a technical perspective, we still haven’t filled the earlier gap, prices are still below all 3 major moving averages, and we haven’t fallen back into the majority of side-ways price movement we had leading up to this move lower.

VGK 6-30-16

Buy to cover 30 EWZ (Brazil) Jul 15 $31/$33 Vertical Call Spread @ $.10 ($450 Profit)

  • Buy to cover Jul 15 $31 Call
  • Sell Jul 15 $33 Call

Moves higher like this don’t help my option position. I need price to move away from $31.00. If it does it for 1-2 days I could easily sell for my target price. But I need to manage this trade in such a way that I don’t let it go past $31. I’ll let it do so intraday, but this does expire on Jul 15th, so there is a very high chance still we won’t close above $31 by that time. I bought a lot of contracts on this trade which can chew up a good amount of commission, so if I can let this run it’s full course and pocket the full 100% credit, then I will do so.

EWZ 6-30-16

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail

6-30-16 – Trading Strategy

6-30-16 – Trading Strategy

What I’m In


6/24/16 – UGLD (Gold) @ $13.65 ($5,255 Position Size)
6/29/16 – Short VGK (Europe) @ $45.69 ($20,000 Position Size)
6/29/16 – UGAZ (Natural Gas) @ $46.13 ($5,997 Position Size)
6/29/16 – 30 EWZ (Brazil) Jul 15 $31/$33 Vertical Call Spread @ $.25 ($750 credit)

What I’m Buying


  • I’m already loaded up on positions. Market correlations are strong, but I have a good distribution of bullish/bearish trades across equities and commodities. My overarching view is this is a short term bounce which should reverse and thus help commodities and hurt the equities.

What I’m Selling


Sell UGLD (Gold) Limit @ $14.90 17.22% or ($904 Profit)
Sell UGLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $11.50 15.75% or ($827 Loss)

Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $55.00 19.23% or ($1,153 Profit)
Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Stop Limit @ $33.50 27.38% or ($1,641 Loss)

Buy to Cover VGK (Europe) Limit @ $43.50 4.79% or ($958 Profit)
Buy to Cover VGK (Europe) Stop Limit @ $47.50 3.96% or ($792 Loss)

Buy to cover 30 EWZ (Brazil) Jul 15 $31/$33 Vertical Call Spread @ $.10 ($450 Profit)

  • Buy to cover Jul 15 $31 Call
  • Sell Jul 15 $33 Call

Today’s Update


Market Snapshot 6-29-16

Day two of the recovery with continued strong correlation. This time TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) turned over near the end of market close, perhaps signaling further decline, but regardless, it was enough to sell out of my TLT position which I only held onto for one day.

Also of note, many markets have recovered between 50-60% of the brexit downfall in the last two days, one has to seriously question how much longer this will be sustained before a reversal.

Strategically, I’m setup to possibly profit from either direction with Gold and Natural Gas being the commodity plays and short positions in EWZ (Brazil) and VGK (Europe).

Buy to cover 20 TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Jul 8 $142 / $145 Vertical Call Spread filled @ $.19 for a $450 profit

All it took was this little move for me to scalp off a quick profit. Most of the move came during the final minutes of the market and didn’t require any adjustments on my part.

TLT 6-29-16

What I’m Selling


Sell UGLD (Gold) Limit @ $14.90 17.22% or ($904 Profit)
Sell UGLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $11.50 15.75% or ($827 Loss)

UGLD 6-29-16

Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $55.00 19.23% or ($1,153 Profit)
Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Stop Limit @ $33.50 27.38% or ($1,641 Loss)

UGAZ 6-29-16

Buy to Cover VGK (Europe) Limit @ $43.50 4.79% or ($958 Profit)
Buy to Cover VGK (Europe) Stop Limit @ $47.50 3.96% or ($792 Loss)

VGK 6-29-16

Buy to cover 30 EWZ (Brazil) Jul 15 $31/$33 Vertical Call Spread @ $.10 ($450 Profit)

  • Buy to cover Jul 15 $31 Call
  • Sell Jul 15 $33 Call

EWZ 6-29-16

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail

6-29-16 – Trading Strategy

6-29-16 – Trading Strategy

What I’m In


6/24/16 – UGLD (Gold) @ $13.65 ($5,255 Position Size)
6/28/16 – TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Jul 8 $142 / $145 Vertical Call Spread options filled @ $.38

 

What I’m Buying


Order Cancels Order (OCO)
Buy UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $42.50 ($7,083 Position Size)
Buy UGAZ (Natural Gas) Stop @ $45.00 ($5,869 Position Size)

When filled, my stop will be $33.50

Short VGK (Europe) had a good reversal bounce today, I want to try and short this by market close tomorrow. I’d rather wait and see if we get a second day higher before shorting.

What I’m Selling


Sell UGLD (Gold) Limit @ $14.90 17.22% or ($904 Profit)
Sell UGLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $11.50 15.75% or ($827 Loss)

Buy to cover 20 TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Jul 8 $142 / $145 Vertical Call Spread options @ $.19 for a $450 profit

 

Today’s Updates


Market Snapshot 6-28-16

The bounce came a day earlier than I expected, but I’m certainly satisfied with the results. First, as you can see, global market correlation still. Second, Gold was the one hit, and Bonds wasn’t, but they aren’t 100% on a daily basis, but I imagine Bonds will be soon to follow.

I do not trust this as a full blown rally one bit which is why I’m selling into this rally as a bounce for prices to head lower.

Here were today’s trades…

Sold DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $96.00 5.15% or ($494 Profit)

No an enormous write home to mom profit, but this combined with my VXX option spread, it was a good day. You can’t get greedy in these markets and taking consistent profits pays off fast.

Also, it’s hard to trust if this is going to be a new breakout or just a dead cat bounce. However, if you look back at the previous blog posts, I took this trade because it was the strongest ETF of all during the Brexit Panic. It could still be a good trade going forward, I’ll wait until the first pullback again to possibly trade this to the upside.

DRN 6-28-16

Buy to Cover 20 VXX (VIX) Vertical Call Spread Jul 15 $18/$22 @ $.30 .36 for a $480 profit

  • Buy to Cover 20 VXX (VIX) Jul 15 $18 Call
  • Sell 20 VXX (VIX) Jul 15 $22 Call

First, my apologies for not sending out a notification of this sale. When I saw the DRN (Real Estate) trade sold AND this position was also profitable, I saw this as a $1,000 profit day. I didn’t see any point in waiting another day to possibly give up this profit.

Second, I couldn’t send this out because I was literally trading while riding in an Uber to a customer appointment. If the driver wasn’t playing morse code with the break pedal, I may not even have gotten the trade off without losing my lunch. =)

You can see here from the screen shot that I sold it 6 minutes before market close (time is in PST). I eventually want to have an automated system that emails out my orders for me whenever I take an intraday transaction.

VXX Trade Confirmation 6-28-16

20 TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Jul 8 $142 / $145 Vertical Call Spread options filled @ $.38 for a $760 credit

  • Buy to Cover 20 TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Jul 8 $142 Call
  • Sell 20 TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Jul 15 $145 Call

As I emailed out in my intraday newsletter today, TLT is getting very toppy. It’s now at an all time new high and turning moving nearly straight up. This time I pushed my price up higher with a little more room to move. I wanted to sell this at $.45 but again, while riding in an Uber, I saw I wasn’t going to get it and decided to take what was available.

I’m expecting a short term reversal in this so I can pick up some quick cash before the Jul 15 expiration as long as price is below $142.

TLT Order Confirmation 6-28-16

TLT 6-28-16

What I’m Buying


Order Cancels Order (OCO)
Buy UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $42.50 ($7,083 Position Size)
Buy UGAZ (Natural Gas) Stop @ $45.00 ($5,869 Position Size)

When filled, my stop will be $33.50

UGAZ has officially broken the final leg up making a new high and breaking the 100-day EMA in orange. I really should have gotten into this after it’s original break out of the $33.00 consolidation level, but this could easily be a second leg higher. My stop is going to be a good level away which means my position size will be smaller to accommodate.

UGAZ 6-28-16

Short VGK (Europe) had a good reversal bounce today, I want to try and short this by market close tomorrow. I’d rather wait and see if we get a second day higher before shorting.

VGK 6-28-16

What I’m Selling


Sell UGLD (Gold) Limit @ $14.90 17.22% or ($904 Profit)
Sell UGLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $11.50 15.75% or ($827 Loss)

3.44% drop today took me out of paper profits, but I’ve extended my stop low enough to cover any volatility as I can see this being a longer term play.

UGLD 6-28-16

Buy to cover 20 TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Jul 8 $142 / $145 Vertical Call Spread options @ $.19 for a $380 profit

  • Buy to Cover 20 TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Jul 8 $142 Call
  • Sell 20 TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Jul 8 $145 Call

If I can make a quick profit tomorrow I’ll take it. I may adjust it if we come close and there is a clear sign of a reversal sometime this week.

TLT 6-28-16

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail
1 2 3 9