Monthly Archives: May 2016

6-1-16 – Trading Strategy

6-1-16 – Trading Strategy

What I’m In



5/13/16 – ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) @ $27.00 ($13,500 Position Size)

5/26/16 – SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors) @ $29.95 ($20,000 Position Size)

 

What I’m Buying


  • We are very close to possible breakouts or reversals. Despite the large moves in a handful of markets, they are still well within previous sideways price ranges. No new orders for tomorrow.

What I’m Selling


 

Sell ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $31.85 17.96% or ($2,425 Profit)
Sell ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $27.10 .37% or ($75 Profit)

Sell SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors) Limit @ $32.00 6.84% or ($1,366 Profit)
Sell SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors) Limit @ $27.70 7.51% or ($1,500 Loss)

Today’s Updates


Market Snapshot 5-31-16

Nice to see some market diversification today, but as I heard from another trader I spoke with, it was like watching paint dry. Very little happening in the US and European markets. Gold Miners and Natural Gas saw the largest moves, but despite the large energy moves, my position in ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) went down, which is a rather abnormal miscorrelation.

Many markets are very close to breakouts which I’ll cover in my “What I’m Watching” section today, but otherwise I’m still waiting for volatility and the tides of the markets to pick up some more.

What I’m Watching


BRZU (Brazil) is slowly dipping it’s toe testing the $64.00 support level. A nice opening gap lower would be a great play for BZQ (Inverse Brazil). I’m just waiting for that final move instead of trying to predict when it will happen.

BRZU 5-31-16

I lost on a small trade trying to play EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) to the downside. We are now in a very nice trend channel lower, testing the triple moving averages and the top of this trend channel. I am thinking of playing EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) again if we see a strong down move this week in EDC (Emerging Markets).

EDC 5-31-16

EWJ (Japan) bit me earlier as I tried to play a downside move early in the month after the massive drop on April 28th. We’ve since moved sideways with a more downward bias and now we may be breaking back to the upside. Today’s move wasn’t significant enough for me to jump on a trade, so I’m going to wait and see if we get some upward momentum to make this tradable.

So many markets are rather flat and directionless that to have better than a 50/50 chance at direction, we need an increase in volatility to go with it.

EWJ 5-31-16

UGAZ (Natural Gas) had a very good move higher today, this is the kind of move that raises eyebrows and shows the increase in momentum and volume which could precede a larger move. I’m waiting for a break above $27.00 which I would take intraday if it happens tomorrow. I’ll have to see it’s effect on my position in ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) so I can jump out of that and perhaps ride this commodity higher.

UGAZ 5-31-16

UGLD (Gold) finally saw a green day after 7 straight days down. What is interesting is a near perfect bounce at the $10.50 support level. Now to see if we get a follow through day tomorrow or if we fail and fall back lower. JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) sometimes is the precursor to higher moves in Gold and JNUG was up 8.81% today.

UGLD 5-31-16

XIV (Inverse VIX) is about to test $33.00 and there is a good chance with this many days up in a row that $33.00 will hold. However, there is no guarantee it will reverse sharply in heavy volatility either. But this can’t last for much longer.

XIV 5-31-16

 

What I’m Selling


Sell ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $31.85 17.96% or ($2,425 Profit)
Sell ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $27.10 .37% or ($75 Profit)

ERX is on a slow grind. My profit target is so close. If I can get a hit then I’ll close out May with a good size return. None of the technicals have changed, but it’s still following all the existing trends. Just hoping this type of patience pays off instead of turns out to be a dissappointing small gain.

ERX 5-31-16

Sell SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors) Limit @ $32.00 6.84% or ($1,366 Profit)
Sell SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors) Limit @ $27.70 7.51% or ($1,500 Loss)

SOXL (US Semi Conductors) is still hitting the top of the Keltner Band which is historically a reversal point. However, with the low volatility conditions, even if there is a reversal, I may only be looking at a possible break-even or a small loss at this point. Keltner Reversals are ideal setups during volatile conditions which have dried up quickly since last week. So the reversal may still come, but this trade may be a bust.

SOXL 5-31-16

My order for SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors) for tomorrow. I’m still not stopped out, but it’s unlikely this continuous move will continue.

SOXS 5-31-16

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ETFs to Watch 5.30.16

ETFs to Watch 5.30.16

The markets have had a small injection of bullishness last week with very strong correlations globally. However, with the 3-day weekend behind us, now it’s time to see if we are developing new trends, or only delaying the inevitable continued downturn?

Volatility has been shrinking dramatically and prices have been flat for many markets. However the US market is making some very near term potential highs while Gold is in a massive correction.

Watch this week’s video for more insight on the B12 Trader Markets.

 

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5-31-16 – Trading Strategy

5-31-16 – Trading Strategy

What I’m In



5/13/16 – ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) @ $27.00 ($13,500 Position Size)

5/26/16 – SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors) @ $29.95 ($20,000 Position Size)

 

What I’m Buying


  • No new orders for the start of the 3 day weekend. I’m expecting volatility and volume to pick up when we return, so we’ll see which of these markets either break out or reverse (Aka Gold, XIV, SOXL)

What I’m Selling


 

Sell ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $31.85 17.96% or ($2,425 Profit)
Sell ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $27.10 .37% or ($75 Profit)

Sell SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors) Limit @ $32.00 6.84% or ($1,366 Profit)
Sell SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors) Limit @ $27.70 7.51% or ($1,500 Loss)

 

Today’s Updates


Market Snapshot 5-27-16

As expected, rather small moves and volume to close out the week before the 3-day market weekend. Surprisingly JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) took a big drop, and of course so did GDX (Gold Miners) which was exactly what I wanted to my short call option spread.

Buy to cover 50 GDX (Gold Miners) Jun 3 $22/24 Vertical Call Spread filled @ $.09 for a $500 Profit

  • Sell to Close 50 GDX Jun 3 $24 Call
  • Buy to Close 50 GDX Jun 3 $22 Call

That little move today was all I needed for my short call spread to increase by 50% today and thus hit my profit target. Quick $500 profit to close out the week which I’ll take every Friday of the week if I could get it. =)

GDX 5-27-16

What I’m Watching


DRN (Real Estate) is slowly climbing after bouncing off the 100-day EMA. I could have taken this on the 2nd or 3rd day alone, but these markets haven’t been very trendy so I’m looking for more substantial moves. In the case of DRN I want to see it break $80 which held for many weeks prior.

DRN 5-27-16

UGLD (Gold) is now at a critical test point of $10.50. It’s closed just below this level, but it’s also done so on a rare 7 trading days in a row. It’s almost a perfect point for a rebound, especially if the other global markets reverse direction next week. This is simply a wait and see what happens type of trade. If it does show a strong “v-type” rebound on Tuesday then I may take a trade in it that same day.

UGLD 5-27-16

XIV (Inverse VIX) is up for the 6th trading day in a row. I honestly believe this is going to be a throw-over. The VIX measures volatility in the S&P 500 futures and basically volatility is  very low right now, which to me, means XIV is going to reverse soon, and reverse hard if we get any type of market turmoil. That in turn should drive prices of GOLD up, XIV down and create some good opportunity to sell more options.

XIV 5-27-16

What I’m Selling


Sell ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) Limit @ $31.85 17.96% or ($2,425 Profit)
Sell ERX (Energy Exploration Companies) Stop Limit @ $27.10 .37% or ($75 Profit)

I’m feeling a bit nervous about how slow this market is moving. It’s been a couple of weeks and we still haven’t reached the $31.85 level. If Monday doesn’t see a big move then I may just take profits off the table. Natural Gas is sitting on a key support level and isn’t pulling away and it’s hard to see how much higher crude oil can go. There’s already a lot of bad news out there justifying higher crude oil temporarily, but it’s upward ascent is slowing a bit and I don’t want to be in the way if it changes direction.

ERX 5-27-16

Sell SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors) Limit @ $32.00 6.84% or ($1,366 Profit)
Sell SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors) Limit @ $27.70 7.51% or ($1,500 Loss)

So today wasn’t the day SOXL (US Semi Conductors) reverse from it’s Keltner top. It instead climbed higher. However, I’m not too worried as it’s also approaching a major resistance level at $30.00, so I’ll continue to ride this out. The only problem is the reversal may not be a super profitable one as I’ll simply be coming back to break even depending on the move back down.

SOXL 5-27-16

My order for Tuesday in SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors). I will probably monitor it near the end of market close and sell out if I am showing any kind of profit though.

SOXS 5-27-16

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