Monthly Archives: April 2016

4-29-16 – Trading Strategy

4-29-16 – Trading Strategy

What I’m In


4/13/16 – UGLD (Gold) @ $11.70 ($14,625 Position Size)
4/14/16 – RUSL (Russia) @ $60.00 ($6,900 Position Size)
4/18/16 – Short 2 RUSL (Russia) May $58 Puts @ $4.00
4/25/16 – UGAZ (Natural Gas) @ $28.00  ($8,400 Position Size)
4/27/16 – TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) @ $89.04 ($20,000 Position Size)

 

What I’m Buying


  • I am as diversified as I can be at this point. However, I may add one final position and that would be to short EWJ (Japan) I’ll watch their markets tonight and decide what I want to do tomorrow.

What I’m selling


Sell UGLD (Gold) Limit @ $13.00 11.11% or ($1,625 Profit)
Sell UGLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $10.50 10.26% or ($1,500 Loss)

Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $75.00 25.00% or ($1,730 Profit)
Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $60.00 1.67% or ($115 Loss)

Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $40.00 42.86% or ($3,600 Profit)
Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Stop Limit @ $23.00 17.86% or ($1,500 Loss)

Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $96.00 or ($1,563 Profit)
Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $87.25 2.01% Loss or ($402 Loss)

Today’s Updates


Market Snapshot 4-28-16

Big moves across the board today. Nikkei in Japan was down almost 1,000 points overnight causing EWJ (Japan) to gap down like a rock. Lots of money went into Oil and Gold, while my position in UGAZ (Natural Gas) continued to decline due to a bad inventory report.

Seeing positive moves in 3 out of my 4 positions. Moving to a dollar risk level has helped with the emotional “eject” button and I think will keep me on track going forward. It won’t put a big dent in the month of April though, so it will look like a horrible month. However I see brighter months ahead now as I’m adapting to a more risk tolerant strategy not putting in my full $20k on every trade during this extremely volatile markets.

What I’m Watching


EWJ (Japan) fell out of the sky today, so this could be an overreaction or the start of a very bearish trend. I want to short this market, but I want to wait until tomorrow to do so. Price is back below all the major moving averages, PPO has turned negative, and the move down was on massive volume. Price also closed below it’s $11.60 resistance level so we have a perfect storm to go negative on this market. However, with that steep of an overnight move, we could see a large reversal in response.

EWJ 4-28-16

PIN (India) had a strange correlation with EWJ (Japan) and also had a significant gap lower today. I like PIN for it’s diversity, but it can be a wild and choppy market. Overnight this doesn’t look as bullish as it did for the last two days. These are warning signs to stay away until the move looks more smoother.

PIN 4-28-16

SPXL (S&P 500) had a good size drop today which has brought us down below the 20-day EMA in purple which hasn’t happened in a number of months. However, the volatility in SPXL (Just look at the chart to the left) and you can see that some of these drops don’t last long enough to play as a “trend” but perhaps a quick scalp for a day or two move. I don’t want to switch views from day to day, so I am going to wait to see if there is something more significant to call this bearish.

SPXL 4-28-16

UWTI (Crude Oil) is on it’s second day of it’s breakout. It started strong but finished near where it started. A good friend of mine have been debating this one. He thinks this doesn’t have legs and he could be right. However I see a multi month triangle breakout and they don’t come along often. The higher it goes, the more expensive it becomes to take a chance while being able to keep a tight stop loss.

UWTI 4-28-16

What I’m Selling


Sell UGLD (Gold) Limit @ $13.00 11.11% or ($1,625 Profit)
Sell UGLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $10.50 10.26% or ($1,500 Loss)

Hopefully this is a sign of patience paying off. Today was the largest move in Gold I’ve seen since I got into the position. We’re not at the highest levels since I entered. $13.00 isn’t too far away either. If we get another green day tomorrow, then I will move up my stop to try and limit my losses.

UGLD 4-28-16

Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $75.00 25.00% or ($1,730 Profit)
Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $60.00 1.67% or ($115 Loss)

Moving up my stop to $59.00 which will limit any downside moves. We had a nice intraday spike today which was corrected as Oil fell back down. If we break above $70 tomorrow I may decide to sell. I’ve had to sit through a lot of volatility in this market and it would be nice to close out April with some positive trades and start fresh for March.

RUSL 4-28-16

Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $40.00 42.86% or ($3,600 Profit)
Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Stop Limit @ $23.00 17.86% or ($1,500 Loss)

Not every breakout does break out, we are now pennies away from my stop. Today was the largest drop in more than a month AND on the highest volume. PPO turned negative today and price is now below all 3 major moving averages. I’m expecting to get stopped out tomorrow, but plenty of action in my other positions to make up for this loss.

UGAZ 4-28-16

Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $96.00 or ($1,563 Profit)
Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $87.25 2.01% Loss or ($402 Loss)

Not much I can say about this trade. It’s going exactly as I want. If tomorrow crosses the 20 and 50-day EMA’s in purple and yellow with a PPO turning positive I will be even happier. This could have longer term potential further than $96.

TMF 4-28-16

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4-28-16 – Trading Strategy

4-28-16 – Trading Strategy

What I’m In


4/13/16 – UGLD (Gold) @ $11.70 ($14,625 Position Size)
4/14/16 – RUSL (Russia) @ $60.00 ($6,900 Position Size)
4/18/16 – Short 2 RUSL (Russia) May $58 Puts @ $4.00
4/25/16 – UGAZ (Natural Gas) @ $28.00  ($8,400 Position Size)
4/27/16 – TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) @ $89.04 ($20,000 Position Size)

 

What I’m Buying


  • Markets are strongly correlated and I’m in enough positions for my comfort level right now. I’m seeing a number of breakouts if you are looking for ideas to capitalize on this week though.

What I’m selling


Sell UGLD (Gold) Limit @ $13.00 11.11% or ($1,625 Profit)
Sell UGLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $10.50 10.26% or ($1,500 Loss)

Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $75.00 25.00% or ($1,730 Profit)
Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $47.00 21.67% or ($1,500 Loss)

Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $40.00 42.86% or ($3,600 Profit)
Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Stop Limit @ $23.00 17.86% or ($1,500 Loss)

Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $96.00 or ($1,563 Profit)
Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $87.25 2.01% Loss or ($402 Loss)

Today’s Updates


Market Snapshot 4-27-16

Still strong correlations in the markets as a result of the FOMC announcement today. Interest rates remain the same so now the markets can move as they please until the next dramatic event.

I bought back my last May 60 RUSL Call for $7.50 since it was mostly a hedge against RUSL (Russia) going down which it seems may be going in my favor.

TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) order filled @ $89.04

I was watching the markets to see what would happen with the FOMC today, TMF took a nice opening gap and started taking off after the announcement. As I’ve been stating earlier, I was watching to see if we would get a confirmed bounce off $87.50 as support and we did. This leaves me with a huge risk/reward ratio with very little downside and an upside that could go much higher.

I sent out an email just after submitting my order for $89.10 and when I checked, my order was filled at $89.04! Volatility was whipping TMF around like crazy and my broker got a better price, gotta love that!

TMF 4-27-16

What I’m Watching


A number of markets are on breakouts, take your pick! I’m already loaded up, but I wanted to share some of the big ones worth considering.

EDC (Emerging Markets) has been on a steady incline for some time now. Today made it look like we have another bounce off the 20-day EMA in purple and a bounce off the lower trend channel. PPO hasn’t turned upward yet, but one could argue for an entry now or wait for the final shoe to drop and for PPO to turn positive.

EDC 4-27-16

PIN (India) I called this one out yesterday highlighting the nice gap above $19.30, today was validation that it’s still going further. PIN doesn’t usually have smooth trends so expect a choppy ride on the way up.

PIN 4-27-16

SPXL (S&P 500) is back to testing resistance. Still going to wait for $90 to break, and even if it does, I’m going to be wanting to see an opening gap higher or a large intraday move to confirm it.

SPXL 4-27-16

UWTI (Crude Oil) confirmed it’s triangle breakout today and closed above $30. One could also wait one more day to see if there is any further test of $30 as well.

UWTI 4-27-16

XIV (Inverse VIX) had a very nice move today, even though it opened up lower, it tested $27.50 and took off. This could be a nice early entry with a tight stop around $26.50 with a $31.00 price target.

XIV 4-27-16

What I’m Selling


Sell UGLD (Gold) Limit @ $13.00 11.11% or ($1,625 Profit)
Sell UGLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $10.50 10.26% or ($1,500 Loss)

Positive move higher, but still within the sideways action we’ve seen all week.

UGLD 4-27-16

Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $75.00 25.00% or ($1,730 Profit)
Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $47.00 21.67% or ($1,500 Loss)

Closed on the high for the day, always a good sign for higher potential going forward. I’m just glad it’s not testing my $58 entry. Just being patient and waiting for the trend higher to continue.

RUSL 4-27-16

Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $40.00 42.86% or ($3,600 Profit)
Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Stop Limit @ $23.00 17.86% or ($1,500 Loss)

My entry into this market was either too early or completely wrong. I bought on a pull back and it keeps going down. Prices did make a nice intraday recovery higher, so perhaps tomorrow will be the first green day to smile about. The more I look at it, the more I question if $21.00 would have been a better stop level though?

UGAZ 4-27-16

Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $96.00 7.82% or ($1,563 Profit)
Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $87.25 2.01% or ($402 Loss)

Bought the specifically because it tested $87.50 yesterday and bounced higher today. The upside to the move is great considering it’s previous price history. Today was either a small pull back from the massive downslide it’s seen or it was a bottom. Either way, this was worth the trade.

TMF 4-27-16

 

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4-27-16 – Trading Strategy

4-27-16 – Trading Strategy

What I’m In


4/13/16 – UGLD (Gold) @ $11.70 ($14,625 Position Size)
4/14/16 – RUSL (Russia) @ $60.00 ($6,900 Position Size)
4/18/16 – Short 1 RUSL May 60 Calls @ $5.20
4/18/16 – Short 2 RUSL (Russia) May $58 Puts @ $4.00
4/25/16 – UGAZ (Natural Gas) @ $28.00  ($8,400 Position Size)

 

What I’m Buying


 

  • No new orders, everyone is waiting on the Fed tomorrow and today there was a great deal of market correlation. No more diversity is needed.

What I’m selling


Sell UGLD (Gold) Limit @ $13.00 11.11% or ($1,625 Profit)
Sell UGLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $10.50 10.26% or ($1,500 Loss)

Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $75.00 25.00% or ($1,730 Profit)
Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $47.00 21.67% or ($1,500 Loss)

Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $40.00 42.86% or ($3,600 Profit)
Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Stop Limit @ $23.00 17.86% or ($1,500 Loss)

Today’s Updates


Market Snapshot 4-26-16

Strong market correlations today, but good and bad news after market close. Apple (AAPL) reported earnings after hours and it didn’t fare well. Last I checked prices were down 8% which will cause a good gap lower in SPXL (S&P 500) most likely.

Crude Oil inventory numbers came out after market close today and were better than expected. This should vibe well for my position in RUSL (Russia).

FOMC announcement on interest rates, the expectation is they will remained unchanged, but volatility and speculation will cause for a choppy day most likely. Markets are strongly correlated this week so I’m not adding new positions incase they decide to make an about-face.

What I’m Watching


PIN (India) gapped higher today above previous resistance of $19.30 and a nice corrective bounce off the 20-day EMA in purple. PPO also turned higher today. If I wasn’t in other positions I’d probably take this trade with my stop just below $19.00.

PIN 4-26-16

SPXL (S&P 500) failed to break $90 a few days ago and I have been waiting to see if it would. With Apple taking a big after hours hit, this could bring SPXL (S&P 500) below the 20-day EMA in purple tomorrow and outside it’s upward trend channel.

I wouldn’t play SPXS (Inverse S&P 500) on this news alone because I’ve seen after hours announcements of companies slam the price lower after hours, only to go on a multi-day bullish run because the company started a huge buy-back. So best to see how SPXL (S&P 500) does near the market close after the FOMC announcement on interest rates as well to gauge if this is going to reverse down or spike above $90.00 as hoped-for.

SPXL 4-26-16

TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) is falling like a rock and tested the $87.50 support level today. With this many days down in a row, I wouldn’t jump on until the first reversal day at least, but there must be some serious speculation on interest rates to affect Bonds so strongly.

TMF 4-26-16

What I’m Selling


Sell UGLD (Gold) Limit @ $13.00 11.11% or ($1,625 Profit)
Sell UGLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $10.50 10.26% or ($1,500 Loss)

Another small day for Gold.. another day that I let this sit.

UGLD 4-26-16

Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $75.00 25.00% or ($1,730 Profit)
Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $47.00 21.67% or ($1,500 Loss)

Still within the range I’ve seen the past few days, but with the positive Crude Inventory report this may finally break out.

As a result I may have to buy back my final $60 call option as the hedge may no longer be necessary.

RUSL 4-26-16

Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $40.00 42.86% or ($3,600 Profit)
Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Stop Limit @ $23.00 17.86% or ($1,500 Loss)

Intraday move was much lower than what it closed, so the recovery at end of day may lead to some bullish moves for the rest of the week.

UGAZ 4-26-16

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