Monthly Archives: March 2016

4-1-16 – Trading Strategy

4-1-16 – Trading Strategy

What I’m in



3/31/16 – PIN (India) @ $19.25

What I’m Buying


Buy DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $81.00
Sell DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $90.00 (11.11% Profit)

Buy EDC (Emerging Markets) Limit @ $48.90
Sell EDC (Emerging Markets) Limit @ $54.00 (10.43% Profit)

Buy SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $81.00
Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $88.00 (8.64% Profit)

Buy TMF (20+  Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $92.50
Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $100.00 (8.11% Profit)

What I’m selling


 

Sell PIN (India) Limit @ $19.75 (2.60% Profit)
Sell PIN (India) Stop Limit @ $18.90 (1.82% Loss)

Today’s Updates


 

Market Snapshot 3-31-16

The markets have simply dragged along most of the week with today being more bearish than bullish. Volatility is very low with very little movement to be seen. I am splattering a number of orders for tomorrow in case we get an end of week volatile move, but I doubt any will fill.

India (PIN) Stop order filled @ $19.25

Price didn’t dip down low enough to get a better fill at $19.10, but just touched off my $19.25 fill. Now to wait and see if we will get continued momentum higher. I imagine I may have to hold on to this one for possibly even a week.

PIN 3-31-16-2

What I’m Watching


 

I’m tossing out a number of orders tomorrow to see what sticks, but I think there are two trends that could be developing.

UWTI (Crude Oil) is now red for the 7th day in a row. I’m waiting to see how strong the pullback is and if $25.00 can hold. If it does, I’ll be looking to play DWTI (Inverse Crude) but I won’t hesitate to take DWTI (Inverse Crude) intraday if there is some kind of major news event tomorrow that send crude down further.

UWTI 3-31-16

UGAZ (Natural Gas) came close to testing $27.00 and turned lower. It was down almost 6% at one point today, so I’m anxious to see if we can fall back into the downward trend channel and possibly turn PPO negative. I will take an end of market trade in DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) if this happens.

UGAZ 3-31-16

What I’m Buying


Buy DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $81.00
Sell DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $90.00 (11.11% Profit)

Very little movement to get a fill on DRN, going to put in the same order in again for tomorrow. Trend is still up, would like a bull back to buy this on the cheap.

DRN 3-31-16

Buy EDC (Emerging Markets) Limit @ $48.90
Sell EDC (Emerging Markets) Limit @ $54.00 (10.43% Profit)

EDC is in a nice uptrend and broke it’s previous high, however, they have been rather choppy so I may get to pick this up cheaper to continue to ride this higher.

EDC 3-31-16

Buy SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $81.00
Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $88.00 (8.64% Profit)

$81.00 is not too far to ask for a pullback in this already existing uptrend. Doesn’t hurt to leave the order out. Price is still in the trend channel, above all the moving averages and PPO is positive. I want a discount though.

SPXL 3-31-16

Buy TMF (20+  Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $92.50
Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $100.00 (8.11% Profit)

TMF is now above where I sold it and the trend looks like it’s continuing. Putting in another order to continue this trend higher.

TMF 3-31-16

 

What I’m selling


Sell PIN (India) Limit @ $19.75 (2.60% Profit)
Sell PIN (India) Stop Limit @ $18.90 (1.82% Loss)

PIN isn’t on a massive breakout so I’m not looking to cash in a lot of profit on this, but it’s still a good technical with a tight stop. I’m putting in my limit order just above a key previous high level.

PIN 3-31-16

3-31-16 – Trading Strategy

3-31-16 – Trading Strategy

What I’m in



– No current holdings

What I’m Buying


Buy DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $81.00
Sell DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $90.00 (11.11% Profit)

Buy SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $81.00
Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $88.00 (8.64% Profit)

Order Cancels Order
Buy PIN (India) Stop @ $19.25
Buy PIN (India) Limit @ $19.10

What I’m selling


  • No current holdings to sell

Today’s Updates


Market Snapshot 3-30-16

Some nice diversification today with rather mild movements in the markets. This is what I like to see in trending markets, nothing too crazy and somewhat autonomous. All of my buy orders didn’t even come close to being filled as we saw very little intraday dip today, but that doesn’t mean the trades aren’t out there. Slight change in orders for tomorrow.

There was enough of a move to stop me out of my position in TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) though.

TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stopped out @ $92.40 for a .82% Profit

This was a personal, not technical decision, mostly because I want to close out March with as much profit as I can while eliminating risk. I am absolutely going to get back into TMF if it continues to go higher. As a trader, sometimes you need a little psychological boost to keep your head clear. I will now be closing out March with about a $3,200 profit and two profitable months in a row. I want to keep this pace up and this was more for a mental win.

Price hasn’t hit my original price of $87.50 so it’s mentally in play and I will go back in tomorrow, possibly intraday if it’s showing strong support.

TMF 3-30-16

What I’m Buying


Buy DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $81.00
Sell DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $90.00 (11.11% Profit)

Small dip in DRN today, but not enough to hit my price entry. Trying again for tomorrow.

DRN 3-30-16

Buy SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $81.00
Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $88.00 (8.64% Profit)

The opening gap higher doesn’t look promising for a fill, but one more try for tomorrow can’t hurt.

SPXL 3-30-16

Order Cancels Order
Buy PIN (India) Stop @ $19.25
Buy PIN (India) Limit @ $19.10

Price broke the $19.00 price resistance level today. Price is holding nicely above all 3 major moving averages (20-50-100) and we’ve broken out of our existing downtrend. I have just been waiting for $19.00 to be broken. I will most likely put in a stop around $18.80 – $18.90 depending on my fill tomorrow which is guaranteed.

PIN 3-30-16

3-30-16 – Trading Strategy

3-30-16 – Trading Strategy

What I’m in



3/24/16 – TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) @ $92.35

What I’m Buying


Buy DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $81.00
Sell DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $90.00 (11.11% Profit)

Buy SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $81.00
Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $88.00 (8.64% Profit)

Buy XIV (Inverse VIX) Limit @ $24.00
Sell XIV (Inverse VIX) Limit @ $27.00 (12.50% Profit)
Sell XIV (Inverse VIX) Stop Limit @ $22.50 (6.25% Loss)

What I’m selling


 

Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $100.00 (8.28% Profit)
Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $92.40 (.82% Profit)

Today’s Update


Market Snapshot 3-29-16

Total market correlation today. Janet Yellen, FOMC head chair, discussed caution on raising interest rates and the markets celebrated with money. This is the power of “Fed Speak” and why it’s the one major news event I let influence my trading. As good as today was for stocks, it was bad for us looking for diversification. Here are the details of today’s executed trades.

DRN (Real Estate) limit order sold @ $85.00 for a 6.25% Profit

DRN 3-29-16

DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) stop limit hit @ $20.90 for a 10.26% Loss

I moved up my stop after a big move higher last week and was hit on the way down today. Fortunately offset by the win in DRN (Real Estate) and hopefully further gains in TMF (20+ year Treasury Bonds) which should close out a profitable month about $3,000+ ahead.

DGAZ 3-29-16

Looking at the chart of UGAZ (Natural Gas) hasn’t quite negated the downward bias. Price hasn’t broken $27.00 yet. This is the struggle sometimes with leveraged ETF’s in the amount I’m willing to give up compared to the amount I should be willing to give up to prove I’m wrong. However, I am still going to get back into DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) should it crawl back to near where I got in at, so this is just downside protection for now.

UGAZ 3-29-16

What I’m Watching


I’m still watching UGAZ (Natural Gas) to see if it reverses off $27.00, but what I was tempted taking today was DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil). UWTI (Crude Oil) has broken out of it’s trend channel (but this was a rather weak and interpretive one honestly). But the fact price fell through all the moving averages, the $25.00 resistance level is now back and PPO turned negative today. We are sitting on 5 down days in a row, but when it’s gone down, it’s held up to 10 days down in a row. I’m just going to wait to see how tomorrow looks and I’ll play DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) if UWTI (Crude Oil) maintains a negative PPO for tomorrow.

UWTI 3-29-16

What I’m Buying


Buy DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $81.00
Sell DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $90.00 (11.11% Profit)

This probably won’t be filled, but there isn’t any reason to try and scoop up a pull-back while this remains in a bullish uptrend. Either way, I’m happy to have taken 6% off the table in profits already.

DRN 3-29-16-2

Buy SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $81.00
Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $88.00 (8.64% Profit)

SPXL has been in an uptrend for sometime, but now it’s holding again above the triple moving averages, PPO has been positive for a long time and it’s about to make a new near time high. I’m not trying to get into a lot of positions so I’m tossing out orders with some steep discounts to see if I can get into one of them without risking too much downside.

SPXL 3-29-16

Buy XIV (Inverse VIX) Limit @ $24.00
Sell XIV (Inverse VIX) Limit @ $27.00 (12.50% Profit)
Sell XIV (Inverse VIX) Stop Limit @ $22.50 (6.25% Loss)

I don’t want to be in both SPXL (S&P 500) and XIV (Inverse VIX) so I’m asking for deep discounts in both hoping that one hits. These have the exact same trade setup with prices keeping above the triple moving averages and a nice bounce off the 20-day EMA recently. I am entering a stop loss on entry because XIV has historically been unpredictable and can have big surprises that I don’t want to be stuck with.

XIV 3-29-16

What I’m Selling


Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $100.00 (8.28% Profit)
Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $92.40 (.82% Profit)

Nice gap higher today above my original entry. Pushing up my stop order to .05 above my entry to ensure some profit. I’d like to ride this out for one of those potential mega burst days higher. I want to stay in this one as long as PPO is positive or we break through a Keltner Top.

TMF 3-29-16

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