Monthly Archives: February 2016

3-1-16 – Trading Strategy

3-1-16 – Trading Strategy

What I’m in


2/24/16 – GLD (Gold) @ $118.99
2/26/16 – DWTI (Inverse Crude) @ $247.35

What I’m selling



Sell GLD (Gold) Limit @ $124.00 (4.21% Profit)

Sell GLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $114.40 (3.86% Loss)

Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude) Limit @ $280.00 (13.20% Profit)
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude) Stop @ $220.00 (11.06% Loss)

What I’m buying


  • No new orders tomorrow. Markets are still hovering within their resistance levels and no new breakouts today

Today’s Updates


Market Snapshot 2-29-16

 

Fairly bearish day across the board with RUSL (Russia) and BRZU (Brazil) showing a strong up day. Many of the markets are still right within their resistance levels so I am mostly waiting for PPO to turn negative in those markets before I take a trade.

What I’m Watching


DRN (Real Estate) couldn’t break the $69.00 resistance level for a second day in a row and fell even further than the close on Friday. I’m waiting patiently for PPO to turn negative and price to fall below the 20-day EMA to confirm the downtrend is resuming. Otherwise a gap above and close above $69 will be a bullish play in my eyes.

DRN 2-29-16

SPXL (S&P 500) is slowly confirming an expanding triangle. Price couldn’t break above $71.00 and closed lower. Just like DRN (Real Estate) I’m waiting for PPO to turn negative and price to fall below the 20-day EMA to make this a trade in SPXS (Inverse S&P 500).

SPXL 2-29-16

JNUG (Junior Gold Miners)

Nice move higher today in JNUG with price breaking above $62.00. However, there is a flat pattern forming around $65 – $66. I would like to see an open and close above $62.00 to confirm this is going higher and isn’t in a stall.

JNUG 2-29-16

What I’m Selling


 

Sell GLD (Gold) Limit @ $124.00 (4.21% Profit)
Sell GLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $114.40 (3.86% Loss)

Still holding onto GLD for the longer term play. Price has been stalling near my entry so we should see a breakout to one side or the other shortly.

GLD 2-29-16

Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude) Limit @ $280.00 (13.20% Profit)
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude) Stop @ $220.00 (11.06% Loss)

The 20-day EMA in purple is still holding prices in check in UWTI (Crude Oil) however prices did not fall back into the downward trend channel overnight like they have been doing for the past few months. We could now be entering a sideways channel which could make my current position in jeopardy. I was nearly stopped out within .60 cents in DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil).

Tomorrows opening gap will either stop me out or bring this trade into profitability. All of the technical indicators still make this a bearish trade, especially with price remaining below the 20-day EMA, but with the volatility in this market we could see a jump above $1.90 tomorrow which could be a significant signal and a change in direction for Crude.

UWTI 2-29-16

My orders for tomorrow in DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil). I would like to give room for this to move more intraday, but the daily percentage movements are just too prohibitive to absorb more of a potential loss.

DWTI 2-29-16

 

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2-29-16 – Trading Strategy

2-29-16 – Trading Strategy

What I’m in


2/24/16 – GLD (Gold) @ $118.99
2/26/16 – DWTI (Inverse Crude) @ $247.35

What I’m selling



Sell GLD (Gold) Limit @ $124.00 (4.21% Profit)

Sell GLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $114.40 (3.86% Loss)

Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude) Limit @ $280.00 (13.20% Profit)
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude) Stop @ $220.00 (11.06% Loss)

What I’m buying


  • Still no new orders for Monday. Crude Oil is the only one following a reliable pattern right now. I’ve been sitting watching UGAZ (Natural Gas) continue to fall after letting myself get stopped out and no pull back in that market yet to exploit.

Today’s Updates


 

Market Snapshot 2-26-16

The markets closed out the week in a similar fashion to how they started on Monday. Another week of volatility and more to come for the foreseeable future. I will cover more in my YouTube video this week, but we saw a number of fake breakouts and some confirmed failures. With little trends developing it’s more of a wait as we head into next week to see if breakouts occur.

DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) filled @ $247.35

I made money earlier in the week playing DWTI (Inverse Crude) after watching UWTI (Crude Oil) fail to break it’s 20-day EMA and trend line. This is a common technique to play when markets are volatile. Even though they are volatile, they usually define some type of price boundary that you can play off of.

Here is the daily chart of UWTI (Crude Oil) gapping higher in the morning and falling back after bouncing off the 20-day EMA in purple and it’s upper downward trend channel.

UWTI 2-26-16

The market didn’t look that way Friday morning, so when I saw the opening gap higher and it failed, It looked like a very similar trade setup I took on Tuesday with the same scenario occurring. The opening gap that failed is what they call an “Exhaustion” gap. It’s the last big push by the bulls which eventually fails and falls lower.

What I like about the intraday price action confirmed the daily chart which shows UWTI (Crude Oil) is already in a downward trend and is historically failing once it tests these key levels.

UWTI 2-26-16-2

What I’m Watching


 

DRN (Real Estate) continues to tempt from a chart stand point. It didn’t bounce off it’s upper downward trend line like I had expected, but gapped higher and started testing the moving averages and a final key resistance level of $68.00. The failure on Friday means it could potentially turn lower, but with it this close, a day or two and it could start a new bull run. I’m waiting for a break above $68.00 which will be my entry when it comes. I’m leaving my sideways channel lines up until it breaks above or below.

DRN 2-26-16

SPXL (S&P 500) opened and closed above a key resistance level, time to get bullish right? No. It was a weak move at best. Weak moves usually are “fake-out” moves trying to sucker in bulls that a reversal has taken place before it falls further. Price opened higher and dropped from the open lower. That’s not a sign of strength. A majority of the price action is below $69.00 and it’s more “tradeable” if it falls back below that level. Next week should be fun to watch to see if this corrective mess is over.

SPXL 2-26-16

What I’m Selling


Sell GLD (Gold) Limit @ $124.00 (4.21% Profit)
Sell GLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $114.40 (3.86% Loss)

Decent size intraday drop, but a good recovery to keep Friday’s drawdown minimal. I’m still in this for a longer term play, so hopefully this corrective price action works out soon and GLD start to resume it’s existing trend. No technicals indicate any bearish signs yet, so just hanging in here.

GLD 2-26-16

Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude) Limit @ $280.00 (13.20% Profit)
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude) Stop @ $220.00 (11.06% Loss)

UWTI (Crude Oil) closing lower on Friday confirms the many months of trend that has already been established which makes this a solid trade setup. I’m only keeping my stop wide to account for Intraday volatility in case the bulls push a big opening for it to fall back down again. Price is below all 3 major moving averages, an established down trend, and being held by the 20-day EMA. I will most likely hold onto this one day tops as $1.40 will most likely provide support again.

UWTI 2-26-16

My order for Monday in DWTI (Inverse Crude)

DWTI 2-26-16

 

 

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2-26-16 – Trading Strategy

 

2-26-16 – Trading Strategy

What I’m in


2/24/16 – GLD (Gold) @ $118.99

What I’m selling



Sell GLD (Gold) Limit @ $124.00 (4.21% Profit)

Sell GLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $114.40 (3.86% Loss)

What I’m buying


  • No new orders for tomorrow. Markets are testing key resistance levels again and they will either fail like they have before or they will start to signal confirmations of a reversal this time.

Today’s Updates


Market Snapshot 2-25-16

Another strong reversal today with Crude Oil leading the charge. Strong correlations in the markets make this dangerous to play more than 1-2 positions. Also volatility is starting to test resistance levels again for the second time this week so more patience is needed to see where the trends are going to develop.

I for one am kicking myself for getting stopped out of DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) from last week and hope to see another solid trade setup like that again elsewhere that I can get into.

EWJ (Japan) short stop covered @ $11.06 for a 2.80% Loss

Price gapped above the 20-day EMA and closed above it as well which is enough for me to call the downtrend over for the time being.

EWJ 2-25-16

What I’m Watching


 

DRN (Real Estate) bounced off it’s $62.00 support level instead of breaking through. This is why I try to wait for confirmation of a move whenever possible as all indicators were pointing down. We now have one final threshold to be bullish on Real Estate and that’s an open and close above the 100-day EMA in Orange. That will essentially reset all reasons to be bearish and allow for a play to the upside in this market.

 

DRN 2-25-16

JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) closed again above $62.00 and if it can open and close above $62.00 there could be a continuance trade to play this higher. However since I’m in GLD (Gold) I don’t want to be in both markets, but I wanted to highlight this for subscribers as a potential setup I would take if I wasn’t in GLD (Gold).

JNUG 2-25-16

SPXL (S&P 500) closed above it’s $71.00 resistance line, while SOXL (US Semi Conductors) which is in the same sideways pattern, closed just under it. This could be a small thrower, so tomorrow’s actions I think will be key if we should get excited about the S&P 500 again.

SPXL 2-25-16

What I’m Selling


 

Sell GLD (Gold) Limit @ $124.00 (4.21% Profit)
Sell GLD (Gold) Stop Limit @ $114.40 (3.86% Loss)

I’m in GLD for the longer term play. I’m not positive yet on the position, but today was rather flat so no changes to my order for tomorrow.

GLD 2-25-16

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