Monthly Archives: January 2016

1-13-16 – Trading Strategy

1-13-16 – Trading Strategy


What I’m in


  • No current positions

What I’m selling


  • No current positions

What I’m buying


Buy TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $78.00
Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $81.50 (4.49% Profit)

 

Today’s Updates


Market Snapshot 1-12-16

Not the large rebound I was hoping for which is why I didn’t stay in my positions long. The lack of a really strong bounce means there are still a lot of sellers out there. That doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen tomorrow, but it’s not a predictable pattern that I want to hold overnight for. With the second day of green across the board, I’ll be looking for that really big day higher so I can start looking at inverse positions that I missed out on when these falls first started.

Here is today’s activity

TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) limit sold @ $81.50 for a 4.94% Profit

TMF had a large intraday move, large enough to hit my limit order so I’m  happy with the profit. I’m still bullish on this market so I will try for another order fill tomorrow if it’s to be had.

TMF 1-12-16

JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) order filled @ $28.06
JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) sold @ market for $28.73 for a 2.39% Profit

It was a small blip on the radar, but I wanted to buy within the $28 – $29 range and was able to get in at $28.06 today. I decided not to hold this overnight because Gold took a rather unsuspecting move lower today. The gap lower in Gold really surprised me and once I saw I was making a couple of percentage points in JNUG I decided to pull the trigger since it would help me recoup some of the loss in UGLD (Gold) today.

JNUG 1-12-16

SOXL (US Semi Conductors) sold @ $20.57 for a 2.59% Profit

After seeing the morning gap today get reversed, I jumped out as soon as I saw we were heading for a higher close for the day. I didn’t want to push my luck and hold this for a second day. I could be completely wrong and this is a bottoming process, but the fact it wasn’t a very sharp rebound like I’ve seen in response to these massive drops had me spooked. You don’t lose money taking profits so I was happy to exit at this profit level. I just didn’t want to hold this over for a 3rd night in a very clear downtrending market.

 

SOXL 1-12-16

UGLD (Gold) Stopped out @ $8.00 for a 4.31% Loss

In hindsight I should have waited for a bit more of a pullback in Gold since I got in just after a Keltner Top. However what you can’t see from the charts is I put in the order the day after China has a halt of their stock market for the second day. That kind of chaos is ripe for a safe investment like Gold. If I didn’t get in when I did, it could have easily gap much further higher making almost impossible to get filled.

Circumstances have changed and I was stopped out today. Fortunately I had a stop limit order in instead of a stop order. Today’s opening gap lower at $7.87 could have tacked on another 1.40% percentage points to my loss, but I was stopped out at my predetermined risk level.

The volume was MASSIVE today at 2.7 Million shares vs the 172k shares the day before. So time to wait and see what happens with Gold. We are parked on the 20-day moving average, PPO is still positive, and we’re still on a triangle breakout, so it’s too early to become bearish.

UGLD 1-12-16

What I’m Watching


UGAZ (Natural Gas) may have a confirmed false breakout. Today we started with a large gap lower and finished much lower on the day. Triangle breakouts are best when they break a support or resistance level, but I don’t want to switch direction to bearish quite just yet. Triangles easily turn into sideways consolidations, so I will want to play DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) once it breaks $2.00.

UGAZ 1-12-16

JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) is still on my radar even though I sold today. I just didn’t want to hold this overnight considering the major drop in gold and not a very strong recovery. I want my money on the sidelines so I can take advantage of a confirmed bullish bounce (which support may have held today) or a break below $28.00 for a new downside move.

JNUG 1-12-16

 

What I’m Buying


Buy TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $78.00
Sell TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $81.50 (4.49% Profit)

The trend is still up and holding within the existing trend lines. No reason to try not and get back in at levels I’ve already seen. Otherwise I’m just waiting for all these downtrend markets to reverse their downward course so I can play them back to the downside.

TMF 1-12-16