Monthly Archives: December 2015

12-2-15 – Trading Strategy

12-2-15 – Trading Strategy

Current Sell List


Sell YANG (Inverse China) Limit @ $105 (8.24% Profit)
Sell YANG (Inverse China) Stop Limit @ $86.50 (4.95% Loss)

Sell EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Limit @ $44.50 (3.73% Profit)
Sell EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Stop Limit @ $41.00 (4.43% Loss)

Current Buy List


 

DRN (Real Estate) – Possible play in DRV (Inverse Real Estate) if turns sharply below $75.00
SOXL (US Semi Conductors) – Possible short of SOXL (US Semi Conductors) or a buy in SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors) as a day trade.
TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) – Possible short of TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) or buy of TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) as a day trade.
XIV (Inverse VIX) – Possibly buy of XIV if it goes higher or short if it turns down sharply after FOMC speaks

  • These will all be market orders depending if we get strong reversals around these pivot points

 

Current Holdings


 Real time portfolio updates are now available here

11/16/15 – YANG (Inverse China) @ $91.00
11/30/15 – EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) @ $42.90

Today’s Updates


Market Snapshot 12-1-15

Very bullish across the globe, another signal of the volatility we are experiencing. Everyone is getting revved up in preparation for the FOMC testifying tomorrow. Expect the possibility of a wild ride. With my short positions in China and Emerging markets I’m looking for the classic “Buy on the rumor sell on the news” scenario.

You can check out all the economic events at http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Put the filter on “3 bulls” to see only the most major scheduled events.

Despite today’s green across the board, there were very few new breakouts, but there are a couple I want to highlight.

RUSL (Russia) continues to move lower so I’m not getting filled on my orders for a pullback.

RUSL 12-1-15

TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) exploded today moving 2.5x it’s daily ATR % of 1.72%. It also broke the top of a Keltner Band which is a sign there will be a pullback tomorrow most likely. I discuss Keltner Band tops as a volatility trade in my Educational Series.

With the Fed announcement tomorrow, I am actually going to watch and see what TMF does, I think this could be a great chance to either short TMF or play TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) however I will not put in an order tonight, I want to see how the market reacts to the news. I will send out an email if I decide to take a position.

TMF 12-1-15

SOXL (US Semi Conductors) also closed at a Keltner top AND 5 up days in a row. This is screaming for a reversal, but I actually want to take this as a day trade. I am going watch this one in the morning as well. If it opens higher, I will almost immediately jump into SOXS  (Inverse US Semi Conductors) or short SOXL since it has higher volume.

SOXL 12-1-15

XIV (Inverse VIX) has broken out of it’s triangle and closed above the $30 resistance level. This is a very bullish move, however I’m not going to place any orders tonight because I want to see how the market moves after the FOMC announcement as this could be a false breakout, if it’s not, I will jump in right at the market.

XIV 12-1-15

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 12/2/15



Sell YANG (Inverse China) Limit @ $105 (8.24% Profit)

Sell YANG (Inverse China) Stop Limit @ $86.50 (4.95% Loss)

Another move against me today with YINN (China) climbing higher. It’s still within the downward trendiness so I’m going to play this downward until I’m proven wrong. Thinking out loud, I am questioning if I should have simply taken the 5% profit I was sitting on when YINN dropped 8.35% on Friday. It seems like I can’t get more than a single day trend out of some of these moves and perhaps holding out for more movement was greedy?

Chart of YINN (China) still within the existing downward trend lines, and still below all 3 major moving averages confirming it’s still in a bearish trend, though the nerves start to get to you seeing it this close.

YINN 12-1-15

My orders for tomorrow in YANG (Inverse China)

YANG 12-1-15

Sell EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Limit @ $44.50 (3.73% Profit)
Sell EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Stop Limit @ $41.00 (4.43% Loss)

EDC (Emerging Markets) is still on a slight pull back, but still remains in it’s downward trend lines. Today’s close was one penny away from the open on Friday that signaled this move, so we have a full price retracement.

Chart of EDC (Emerging Markets)

EDC 12-1-15

Same orders for tomorrow in EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets)

EDZ 12-1-15

New Open Orders for 12/2/15



I am going to keep my funds available for some possible day trade or intraday entries tomorrow. With the FOMC testifying I don’t want to enter new orders until I see if there is any reaction. This isn’t a major announcement, but the scrutiny of her every word can create crazy volatility.

DRN (Real Estate) – Possible play in DRV (Inverse Real Estate) if turns sharply below $75.00
SOXL (US Semi Conductors) – Possible short of SOXL (US Semi Conductors) or a buy in SOXS (Inverse US Semi Conductors) as a day trade.
TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) – Possible short of TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) or buy of TMV (Inverse 20+ Year Treasury Bonds) as a day trade.
XIV (Inverse VIX) – Possibly buy of XIV if it goes higher or short if it turns down sharply after FOMC speaks

  • These will all be market orders depending if we get strong reversals around these pivot points
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