Monthly Archives: December 2015

ETF Watch 12.27.15

ETF Watch 12.27.15

Hello everyone, short week last week, but this week is the one to watch out for. Here is my forecast for the 12 markets I track.

Try a 14-day Free Trial today and watch every trade I make with detailed daily analysis.

I’ve now broken up all the symbols I track into individual videos as well! Enjoy!

BRZU (Brazil)

DRN (Real Estate)

EDC (Emerging Markets)

EURL (Europe)

GASL (Natural Gas Companies)

INDL (India)

JPNL (Japan)

RUSL (Russia)

SOXL SPXL XIV (US Markets – Semi Conductors / S&P 500 / Inverse VIX)

TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds)

UGLD (Gold) JNUG (Junior Gold Miners)

UWTI (Crude Oil)

UGAZ (Natural Gas)

YINN (China)

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12-28-15 – Trading Strategy

12-28-15 Trading Strategy

Real time portfolio updates here 

What I’m in


12/17/15 – SPXL (S&P 500) @ $86.00

What I’m selling


Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $92.50 (7.56% Profit)
Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Stop @ $82.85 (3.66% Loss)

What I’m buying


Buy BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $70.50 
Sell BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $75.00 (6.38% Profit)

Buy DRN (Real Estate) Stop @ $75.00 Limit $75.50
Sell DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $78.50 (~4.67% Profit)
Sell DRN (Real Estate) Stop @ $74.50 (~1.33% Loss)

Today’s Updates


Market Snapshot 12-24-15

With the holidays out of the way, I’m expecting to see strong movements to finish out the year. Small corrections on Thursday and most notably was my loss in DRV (Inverse Real Estate)

DRV (Inverse Real Estate) stopped out @ $19.65 for a 1.75% Loss

Sometimes you think the market had your number, and this time they did. Looking back, I should have been more liberal with my stop loss. My order was the low for the day. I had 1,000 shares and when I looked the low was filled on the day with just my shares.

That doesn’t mean that DRN (Real Estate) still won’t reverse, but I wanted to control this trade too much.

Chart of DRV (Inverse Real Estate) 

DRV 12-24-15

Looking at DRN (Real Estate) price did bounce off $75.00, but it also closed near it as well. So I’m going to wait another day to see if we get a reversal or a gap higher.

DRN 12-24-15

 

What I’m selling


Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $92.50 (7.56% Profit)
Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Stop @ $82.85 (3.66% Loss)

Since we know all stocks can’t go up forever without a correction, there is nothing better I like to see than 3 very strong days up and a wimpy day down. This still isn’t in a position where I would enter a new trade, but tomorrow could be the push I’m looking for.

Keeping the same stop limit to reduce my losses. However, tomorrows low ATR level is $81.70 and with my stop at $82.85 I could get hit by an intraday dip. I’m torn in opening up my stop level more as I want to capitalize on the luck that brought this position back to a more reasonable loss level.

SPXL 12-24-15

What I’m buying


Buy BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $70.50
Sell BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $75.00 (6.38% Profit)

Brazil has benign a very clear down trend for a month now and it looks like we are in the middle of a corrective pullback. $14.50 was the previous support level which would easily become resistance and is a good place to look for a possible bounce. I’m also trying for this trade tomorrow because tomorrow’s 7-DAY ATR High is $14.47 which is right next to the previous support level. This could easily become a “support becomes resistance” play and I like the fact that it’s a full ATR away in order to fill this.

These are long shot volatility plays, but if they fill, they are usually profitable.

Chart of BRZU (Brazil) in it’s downward trend channel looking for a possible reversal off of $14.50

BRZU 12-24-15

The equivalent 7-day ATR low in BZQ is $70.50 so that is my entry for tomorrow.

BZQ 12-24-15

Buy DRN (Real Estate) Stop @ $75.00 Limit $75.50
Sell DRN (Real Estate) Limit @ $78.50 (~4.67% Profit)
Sell DRN (Real Estate) Stop @ $74.50 (~1.33% Loss)

DRN (Real Estate) failed to break $75.00 last week, but an opening gap above $75.00 will be a bullish confirmation that it can go higher. All of the existing indicators are bullish, price is above all 3 major moving averages, PPO is positive and we’re close to breaking resistance. If resistance is broken, then I want in.

However, I only want in if we get an opening gap above $75 vs price drifting higher.

DRN 12-24-15

What I’m Watching


 

JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) is on my radar for a possible Keltner Reversal tomorrow. I will be watching JNUG near the end of market close to see if it breaks a Keltner Top, if it does I will most likely buy JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners). Historically JNUG doesn’t move higher more than 3 days in a row, but tomorrow will have to be a large up day to break the Kelter Top which will be even more evidence we could see a reversal afterwards.

I’m not looking at a bullish trade because it broke out of it’s sideways trend channel because price has not exceeded the last time I traded the breakout for a loss. Price needs to get at least to $37.00 for a confirmed breakout, but even if it does that tomorrow, there will most likely be a pull back that I can get in if it does.

JNUG 12-24-15

 

12-24-15 – Trading Strategy

12-24-15 Trading Strategy

Real time portfolio updates here 

What I’m in


12/17/15 – SPXL (S&P 500) @ $86.00
12/23/15 – DRV (Inverse Real Estate) @ $20.00

What I’m selling


Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $92.50 (7.56% Profit)
Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Stop @ $82.85 (3.66% Loss)

Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $21.20 (6.00% Profit)
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $19.70 (1.50% Loss)

What I’m buying


Buy GASL (Natural Gas Companies) Stop @ $7.05 Limit @ $7.15
Sell GASL (Natural Gas Companies) Limit @ $8.40 (~19.15% Profit) or on market close if profitable
Sell GASL (Natural Gas Companies) Stop @ $6.75 (~4.26% Loss)

Buy RUSL (Russia) Stop @ $12.75 limit @ $13.00
Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $13.80 (~8.24% Profit) or on market close if profitable
Sell RUSL (Russia) Stop Limit @ $12.50 (~1.96% Loss)

Today’s Updates


Market Snapshot 12-23-15

DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit order filled @ $20.00

Huge rally in the global market today’s mostly hinging on an increase in the price of oil futures. This in turn drove a lot of the bullishness in the news. GASL (Natural Gas Companies) surged a whopping 35.40% leading the markets today. Also, anytime crude increased RUSL (Russia) usually follows which it did today.

I’m seeing some potential opening gap opportunities tomorrow that I will try to jump on for some possible quick gains.

** US Markets will be closing early at 1:30PM EST tomorrow **

What I’m selling


Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $92.50 (7.56% Profit)
Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Stop @ $82.85 (3.66% Loss)

SPXL had another good day recouping almost all of the losses I had incurred in the position.  Crossing my fingers for one more day of bullishness and then I may be able to squeeze some profit from this. If tomorrow ends in a bullish day, I may want to sell out as we will be up for four days in a row and with the inevitable pullback after such strong moves, I may want to get out while I’m ahead.

I’m moving my stop up even higher for tomorrow to continue to limit the downside in this position.

Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $21.20 (6.00% Profit)
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $19.65 (1.75% Loss

DRN (Real Estate) didn’t quite hit the $75.00 resistance level but it came rather close. I was filled in DRV (Inverse Real Estate) @ $20.00 so now I’m looking for a reversal tomorrow. I am putting in a very tight stop on this to keep my risk low. My $19.65 stop is based on the fact the previous lows in DRV were all around $19.70 so the $19.65 is a small enough cushion to hopefully give this room to move and reverse eventually to $21.20.

Today’s chart of DRN (Inverse Real Estate)

DRN 12-23-15

My order for tomorrow in DRV (Inverse Real Estate)

DRV 12-23-15

What I’m buying


Buy GASL (Natural Gas Companies) Stop @ $7.05 Limit @ $7.15
Sell GASL (Natural Gas Companies) Limit @ $8.40 (~19.15% Profit) or market close if profitable
Sell GASL (Natural Gas Companies) Stop @ $6.75 (~4.26% Loss)

Let me explain the scenario here. Through out 2015 I have missed out on gap opens or gap lower and my limit orders were not filled or my stop orders were filled but quickly reversed. I never had a way to protect myself from over paying or from getting into a position under circumstances more unique than a limit order.

I have created an automated order entry that will only trigger my stop buy order IF GASL gaps open tomorrow. It must gap open between $7.05 – $7.15 to be filled. A normal stop limit order would fill if price moves within that range, but I want the extra step of the opening gap only filling. I’m not giving it much wiggle room to go against me.

Here is today’s chart of GASL (Natural Gas Companies) from a wider time perspective. Price has broken out of it’s sharp downward trend over the previous key resistance level of $6.75.  This could easily reverse due to profit takers tomorrow, but an opening gap higher would signal much more strength in the morning.

** If you have any questions about this trade, please email me for clarification **

GASL 12-23-15

Here is my order for GASL for tomorrow.

GASL 12-23-15-2

Buy RUSL (Russia) Stop @ $12.75 limit @ $13.00
Sell RUSL (Russia) Limit @ $13.80 (~8.24% Profit) or on market close if profitable
Sell RUSL (Russia) Stop Limit @ $12.50 (~1.96% Loss)

I am using the same technique on this order. I am only buying if the opening gap tomorrow is between $12.75 and $13.00. The order will only trigger on the open and no other time during the day. A morning gap above $12.75 will be a break above the previous support level as we already have a confirmed break from the sharp downward trend channel in yellow, PPO is positive and we’re about to break past the 20-day EMA on heavy volume.

I could also argue that the expanding triangle is still in play and we have plenty of upside, but I don’t think that is a valid case until we see a few more days of movement higher.

Today’s chart of RUSL (Russia) showing the reversal

RUSL 12-23-15

My orders for RUSL (Russia) tomorrow

RUSL 12-23-15-2

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