Monthly Archives: December 2015

12-29-15 – Trading Strategy

12-29-15 – Trading Strategy

What I’m in


12/17/15 – SPXL (S&P 500) @ $86.00
12/28/15 – DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) @ $14.80
12/28/15 – DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) @ $14.60

What I’m selling


Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $87.50 (1.74% Profit)
Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Stop @ $82.85 (3.66% Loss)

Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Position 1 Limit @ $17.75 (19.93% Profit)
Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Position 1 Stop Limit @ $13.50 (7.53% Loss)

Sell DGAZ Position 2 Limit @ $16.30 Limit @ $17.75 (21.58% Profit)
Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Position 2 Stop Limit @ $13.50 (8.78% Loss)

What I’m buying


Buy BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $70.50 
Sell BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $75.00 (6.38% Profit)

Today’s Updates


 

Market Snapshot 12-28-15

I think Monday is setting the precedence for how 2015 will end. Strong global sell-off’s with many markets exceeding their average 7-day ATR.

GASL (Natural Gas Companies) fell 12.35% vs a 14.26% ATR but UGAZ (Natural Gas) was up 28.49% vs a 10.42% ATR

JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) fell 9.86% vs a 9.46% ATR

RUSL (Russia) fell 9.46% vs a 7.67% ATR, but this was most likely associated with the 9.93% drop in UWTI (Crude Oil) vs it’s 8.46% ATR

YINN (China) fell 4.60% vs it’s 4.43% ATR

and let’s not forget the trade I took today. UGAZ (Natural GAS) closed up 28.49% VS it’s 10.43% ATR. UGAZ has never had this high of a daily movement before which makes it ripe for some level of reversal tomorrow.

DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) limit order filled @ $14.80

and I decided to double my position on the close

DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) limit order filled @ $14.60

What I’m selling


Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Limit @ $87.50 (1.74% Profit)
Sell SPXL (S&P 500) Stop @ $82.85 (3.66% Loss)

I’m getting a bit paranoid here with so much red across the global markets. SPXL had a nice recovery after nearly stopping me out, but missing by .10 cents. A profit on this trade may be high hopes, so if I get to $87.50 tomorrow I’ll jump out with a small profit at this point.

SPXL 12-28-15

Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Position 1 Limit @ $17.75 (19.93% Profit)
Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Position 1 Limit @ $13.50 (7.53% Loss)

Sell DGAZ Position 2 Limit @ $16.30 Limit @ $17.75 (21.58% Profit)
Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Position 2 Stop Limit @ $13.50 (8.78% Loss)

Today UGAZ (Natural Gas) exploded with a 28.49% move to the upside and a close at the top of a Keltner Band. I use Keltner Bands to determine when a stock or ETF has moved too far too fast. I sent out a notice that I was going to get in at $14.80 today and it was filled. Seeing that it dropped even lower by close I saw another opportunity to double up my position so I am now in this personally for $40k. The last time UGAZ spiked this high was a 32.82% move higher which reversed dramatically the next few days back in January of 2015.

UGAZ 12-28-14-2

Nothing is ever a sure thing, but this is a rare circumstance for prices in this market to go this high and sustain it. The real tricky part is determining a stop loss. One can only hope it’s wide enough to allow for some morning action before the expected reversal in price. I’m going for a big percentage move because it’s happened in the past and I’m doing based on what is possible, not on trying to simply squeak out some profits for the month of December. This is one of those once a year trade setups that could have a large potential return so I will be watching this closely during the day tomorrow.

The last large move up wasn’t a Keltner top like we can see today

UGAZ 12-28-15

Here are my orders for DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) for tomorrow

DGAZ 12-28-15

What I’m Buying


Buy BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $70.50 
Sell BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $75.00 (6.38% Profit)

Tomorrow ATR high is $14.58 which is still close to the $14.50 resistance level I would expect to see a reversal so I am going to put in another order for BZQ (Inverse Brazil) tomorrow.

Today’s chart of BRZU (Brazil)

BRZU 12-28-15

My orders for tomorrow in BZQ (Inverse Brazil)

BZQ 12-28-15