Stocks on the Watch 12.6.15

Stocks on the Watch 12.6.5

We survived another crazy market week. Looking for some dissipation of this as the markets have had time to absorb the news weather good or bad, there are only a few weeks left in the trading year. There are many developing trends coming into next week so read below for my assessment of the B12 Trader 12 Markets that I track.

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BRZU (Brazil) – Bearish

BRZU started the week with a down day and saw a huge rebound most likely as the benefactor of a volatile market. However with all the Friday news digested BRZU closed out the week lower after bouncing off the 20-day EMA in purple. I’m tracing out a possible downward trend channel in blue and I’m still looking for a break below the previous support level of $16.00 to confirm this bearish move going into next week.

BRZU 12-4-15

DRN (Real Estate) – Undecided

Last week I called for continued bullish movement Real Estate and we saw it climb a bit higher than $75.00, but it held and corrected near the end of the week. All is not lost though, we didn’t have a pull back from that recent bullish move to develop a trend channel , but with this most recent pull back it may be the correction I was waiting for.

However, you have to be careful about over “predicting” direction, so I’m waiting for DRN (Real Estate) to break above $75.00 to confirm the bullish trend is continuing.

DRN 12-4-15

EDC (Emerging Markets) – Bearish Consolidation

I was forecasting continued bearish movement last week but it ended up pretty much where it started. Now we’re looking at a short term consolidation. The best trade setup is a bearish move below $12.50 the confirming the continuation of the bearish movement that got EDC this low.

EDC 12-4-15

EURL (Europe) – Bearish Consoldiation

Very little movement in Europe last week, but it failed to move much lower and is now close to testing a $27.00 resistance level. The next resistance level is at $29.00 so there are some serious price hurdles to overcome before this can be considered a bullish market.

A sharp break to the downside if another $27.00 fails would be the bearish confirmation I’m looking for.

EURL 12-4-15

GASL (Natural Gas Companies) – Bearish

Last week I was looking for an opening gap lower below $15.00 to signal a strong bearish move and in this situation that is exactly what happened. These types of moves can typically last 3-5 trading days so I’m suspecting we’ll have another down day before any type of corrective move against this sudden drop. I won’t be trading this until there is a pull back as the drop has already been 27% and the last thing I would want is to enter this to the downside this late in the game.

GASL 12-4-15

 INDL (India) – Sideways / Bearish

We did see a bearish move like I detailed last week, but the test of $12.25 caused a bullish bounce. Monday will be a key day to watch to see if it pulls away from it’s new close at $12.68 or if it breaks the support level of $12.25.

INDL 12-4-16

JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) – Short term Bullish

JNUG has broken it’s 1.5 year upper trend line for the second time in two months. It’s recent downtrend channel has been broken, and in combination with the recent moves higher in Gold this could be the start of a short term bullish move. I wouldn’t venture in calling this the bottom, but all of the characteristics I’m seeing in this market are what’s required in such a move. I was looking for a tradable setup below $28.00 to confirm last weeks bearish moves, but $28.00 held and now we are reversing.

JNUG 12-4-15

JPNL (Japan) – Sideways

Nothing new in Japan except the same sideways movement from last week. JPNL is still between $47 – $51 so I’m looking for breakouts above or below that range.

JPNL 12-4-15

RUSL (Russia) – Sideways / Bearish

Last week I was calling for continued downward movement in RUSL after the confirmed bearish bounce off resistance of $19.00. The final target was $13.50 – $13.00 and RUSL closed out Friday at $13.61.

With the information closing out this week, I’m calling this as a possible sideways because $13.50 could turn into a support level and we may see a bullish bounce. If not, the break below $13.00 will be the confirmation of further bearish movement with an eye on $12.50 and $12.00 as the target.

RUSL 12-4-15

SOXL (US Semi Conductors) – Undecided

There are still too many potentials with SOXL currently. We’ve seen a very strong move to resistance of $30.00, but the days were getting more volatile. I’m waiting to see if we can get a bullish confirmation above $30, a bounce off $30 back into it’s sideways channel, or least likely a break below $24 for a bearish move. Just not enough as of Friday’s close to forecast much for next week.

SOXL 12-4-15

SPXL (S&P 500) – Undecided

Still very little movement to call for a forecast next week in SPXL. The best I can see is a consolidation and an upcoming test of resistance of $92.50. However for most the entire year SPXL has failed many times to break resistance, so I’ll be ready to jump on a bounce lower after a test of $92.50.

SPXL 12-4-15

TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) – Consolidating

Last week I was looking for a short move higher which we saw from last Friday’s close of $75.20 with the highest close $79.19 before turning down. I’m taking a bigger picture approach and I’m tracing out a rather large consolidation. I think this is rather appropriate as the most significant observation is the longer term $70.00 support level and the fact we’re seeing lower highs since late August. A move below $70.00 is the strongest bearish trade setup I can see.

TMF 12-4-15

UGAZ (Natural Gas) – Bearish
Last week I was calling for continued bearish movement in UGAZ and set $2.25 as a possible target for a short term reversal. The low of the week was $2.24 so now to see if we get a reversal more significant of Friday’s close at $2.39. Either way, nothing has changed about the continued bearish direction for UGAZ so the best I think we can hope for is another sideways consolidation for the next week or two.

UGAZ 12-4-15

UGLD (Gold) – Short term Bullish

Gold is very fickle so one can’t call a 2 year bottom so early. However, the moves I’m seeing are significant. First, the downward trend lines I’ve had on my chart are over 2+ years old and have been tested 4 times already. We now have a break from a short term down trend, a bounce off a 2 year low with a heavy volume gap to the upside. It would be very surprising to see this immediately turn around so I’m suspecting this is going to be a good week or two for gold as the historical bounces off the long term lower level trend line have lasted at least that long.

UGLD 12-4-15

UWTI (Crude Oil) – Bearish

UWTI drifted below support of $7.00 last week and is pretty clearly on a bearish trend now. The real question is how bearish should we be? There are two possible channels I’m tracing out, but it doesn’t seem there is a bottom to be found in Crude right now so beware bottom pickers.

UWTI 12-4-15

XIV (Inverse VIX) – Bearish / Bullish Breakout

I’ve been tracing out the triangle consolidation for a couple weeks waiting for the breakout above the resistance level of $30 or a strong break lower. Thursday looked like the prime move lower, but Friday’s reversal and near test of $30 makes one sit back and need to wait.  Last week was rather volatile with all the news events, so I’m expecting to see one direction or the other take hold soon.

XIV 12-4-15

YINN (China) – Bearish Consolidation

China has been in a bearish channel for the last month and is now testing a $19.00 support level. A gap breakout below $19.00 is what I’m looking for to confirm this continued bearish trend next week. And reversals from here will fall under suspicion for a successful trade setup.

YINN 12-4-15

12-7-15 – Trading Strategy

12-7-15 – Trading Strategy

Current Sell List

Sell VXX (VIX) limit @ $21.00 (10.53% Profit)
Sell VXX (VIX) stop limit @ $17.90 (5.79% Loss)

Current Buy List

Buy JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $35.00
Sell JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $39.00 (11.43% Profit)
Sell JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) Stop Limit @ $33.00 (5.71% Loss)

Current Holdings

 Real time portfolio updates are now available here

12/4/15 – VXX (VIX) @ $19.00

Today’s Updates

Market Snapshot 12-4-15

With the major news events out of the way on Friday, we finally saw a more diverse set of directions in the 12 markets I track. Crude and Natural gas will most likely continue their decline. I missed out on the opportunity to short GASL (Natural Gas Companies) last week because it required a short order during market hours. This is a limitation by my current broker and I am changing brokers so I can design more complex order entries that can be placed after hours so I don’t miss on these opportunities going forward.

GASL 12-4-15

This upcoming week should have a great deal of trade opportunities, so expect to see more activity next week.

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 12/7/15

Sell VXX (VIX) limit @ $21.00 (10.53% Profit)
Sell VXX (VIX) stop limit @ $17.90 (5.79% Loss)

I certainly got the pullback I was looking for but we had a full retracement of the gains on Thursday. $18.00 is still a substantial support level, so now it’s a wait and see if it holds. I’ve put my stop at $17.50 which would be a new low. Originally my stop entry was $17.90, but now this trade is relying on the $18.00 support level. It’s dipped intraday down to $17.70 on occasion and I am willing to give up another .20 cents to prevent an intraday dip.

VXX 12-4-15

New Open Orders for 12/7/15

Buy JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $35.00
Sell JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $39.00 (11.43% Profit)
Sell JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) Stop Limit @ $33.00 (5.71% Loss)

Gold has had a beautiful bounce off a multi year lower trend line. It’s much harder for this to fall further. This intern is also bullish for Junior Gold Miners which recently has been less affected by the drops in gold.

JNUG has a nice support level at $29.00, it’s broken out a one and a half month downtrend channel (in blue) and broke again out of it’s longer 2+ year down trend in white. Finally with the move above the 20-day EMA and PPO turning positive, I like all the evidence I have to enter this trade.

JNUG has a 7.75% weekly ATR which is a bit mild compared to what it normally trades at, so I’m asking for a small discount, but not one as substantial. This is simply a stab at a price, but this price is near the low before it gapped lower on 11/5.

JNUG 12-4-15