Monthly Archives: November 2015

12-1-15 – Trading Strategy

12-1-15 – Trading Strategy

Current Sell List


Sell YANG (Inverse China) Limit @ $105 (8.24% Profit)
Sell YANG (Inverse China) Stop Limit @ $86.50 (4.95% Loss)

Sell EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Limit @ $44.50 (3.73% Profit)
Sell EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Stop Limit @ $41.00 (4.43% Loss)

Current Buy List



Buy BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $69.00
Sell BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $76.00 (10.14% Profit)

Buy RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $28.00 
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $30.00 (7.14% Profit)

Current Holdings


 Real time portfolio updates are now available here

11/16/15 – YANG (Inverse China) @ $91.00
11/30/15 – EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) @ $42.90

Today’s Updates


EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) limit order filled @ $42.90

Market Snapshot 11-30-15

Certainly not a bearish continuance from Friday. This is going to be a volatile week with a good deal of intraday movement. BRZU broke below support today and YINN (China) had a strong recovery from Friday’s drop. Everything else remains within existing trend lines and are not providing new trade setups.. yet.

BRZU (Brazil) broke through support of $16.00 with an opening gap and a strong move lower on heavy volume. This is EXACTLY what I wanted to see to confirm the bearish move down. I didn’t get an opportunity to jump in during the day due to work, but I will be making a play at this for tomorrow.

BRZU 11-30-15

SOXL (US Semi Conductors) had a strong breakout of a triangle consolidation today, but in the wrong way in a bearish market. I am cautious this may be a false breakout as the S&P 500 (SPXL) closed lower for the day. I really like to see all the US markets moving in sync. We are nearing resistance at $30 and we closed higher on our 4th day in a row, so I don’t want to get in just yet, I want to see how it handles the $30 level and if it bounces lower or not.

SOXL 11-30-15

UGLD (Gold) bounced off the 2.5 year lower trend line today. I was curious if this would hold or not. Now to see if this is going to be a pivot point reversal (in which I’ll look for PPO to turn positive) or if it’s just a slight pull back before it makes it’s push beyond the lower trend line.

UGLD 11-30-15

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 12/1/15



Sell YANG (Inverse China) Limit @ $105 (8.24% Profit)

Sell YANG (Inverse China) Stop Limit @ $86.50 (4.95% Loss)

It seems like I can’t get anything more than a 1 day trend in the Equities Markets. After an amazing drop in YINN (China) on Friday recouping my negative position and even closing in some solid gains, today pushed everything back to my initial entry of $91.00.

YANG (Inverse China) closed at $90.77 but my stop limit order was not triggered. It appears the biggest price drop came at the last few minutes of trading and didn’t have a trade large enough to trigger my stop limit. I am still in this trade as of now.

I usually never lower my stop limit once set, but the trend is still in tact and I have been prematurely stopping myself out moving up my stops too early. I am going to revert back to my original stop limit area and let this workout accordingly. The 7-day ATR low for today was $90.59 and we didn’t cross this, so today’s close is within the average range, although at the extreme.

It appears my sentiment that the market would take more than a day to adjust for the huge Friday drop was incorrect. I may have to keep reverting to 1-day profit trades as these trends aren’t even holding up for two days in a row in these markets it seems.

YANG 11-30-15

Sell EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Limit @ $44.50 (3.73% Profit)
Sell EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Stop Limit @ $41.00 (4.43% Loss)

I’m doing a simple 1x ATR for tomorrows profit and stop limit orders. I’ll sell out if we see a 1x ATR move, but I’ll increase it if we get near but don’t sell out.

EDZ 11-30-15

New Open Orders for 12/1/15



Buy BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $69.00

Sell BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $76.00 (10.14% Profit)

With the gap below support today in BRZU (Brazil) it’s a clear signal for a bearish move down. Since I didn’t get in today, I have to hope for a pull back in an attempt for a gap fill to get the best position. I could just enter an OCO order, but the daily ATR % is just too high to jump in at current prices.

Today’s Chart of BRZU (Brazil)

BRZU 11-30-15

My orders for tomorrow in BZQ (Inverse Brazil)

BZQ 11-30-15

Buy RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $28.00 
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $30.00 (7.14% Profit)

RUSL (Russia) is still well in it’s down trend, but I didn’t get the pull back I needed to get filled. Putting in the same order for tomorrow.

Today’s chart of RUSL (Russia)

RUSL 11-30-15

My orders for tomorrow in RUSS (Inverse Russia)

RUSS 11-30-15

 

Stocks on the Watch 11.29.15

Stocks on the Watch 11.29.15

Crazy Market Desk Large

Like any good sporting event, you have your ups and downs which make the game exhilarating. Two weeks ago the bulls came out with a furry, but last week they were no where to be seen. It doesn’t seem like much is going to change coming up into this week, but expect more volatility and craziness as there are a number of scheduled news events that will certainly move markets globally on a daily basis. The trends are still down across the globe with only a few bulls leading their individual markets and even those are rather mild.

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Without further ado, here is what I’m seeing across the B12 Trader Markets.

BRZU (Brazil) – Bearish

I was expecting a reversal from $22.50 resistance but Wed/Fri last week proved to be even more confirmation of a bearish move. Also, with the larger drop of the week on Friday, I wouldn’t be surprised if we break the $16.00 support level as well. It’s provided support in the past so I’ll be watching for a gap across $16.00 to play it to the downside myself.

BRZU 11-27-15

DRN (Real Estate) – Bullish

Real Estate continues it’s bullish run. I was calling for a pull back to the $70 which hit on Tuesday and now we’ve closed at $74 to close out the week. This move has still been pretty steep and I’m trying to draw a lower trend channel but I’ve only had one day pull back so far. Either way, this bullish move is still clearly heading up into next week.

DRN 11-27-15

EDC (Emerging Markets) – Bearish

I was looking for the break below $14.00 last week to confirm the bearish trend and it was hit. I thought we’d see a bit more momentum and possibly even at test of $16.50 before we moved down, but we turned down immediately to break below $14.00 and we are well within the downward trend channels now.

EDC 11-27-15

EURL (Europe) – Bearish

It looked like we were going to start the week with a dip off the 50-day EMA in yellow and the upper downward trend line and it moved down as planned. However we saw a strong price move up on the light trading days, so we’ll have to see if it can break or will turn back down. I’m always in favor of the existing trend and that is down so far.

EURL 11-27-15

GASL (Natural Gas Companies) – Bearish

I’m looking at this consolidation to end this week. We’ve closed a second time below the $15.00 support level with a large 12% loss on Friday. However, the best moves are gaps below support so we can see this drag out another day or two, either way, this market is looking very bearish and could fall within the blue/yellow trendiness I’m tracing out.

GASL 11-27-15

INDL (India) – Sideways / Bearish

India certainly moved lower after hitting the top of it’s trend lines, but it’s also stayed that way. We are now moving outside of the upper downward trend line, but looking at the global markets being bearish as well I imagine this will fall below the $12.25 support level for confirmation of a new bearish trend.

INDL 11-27-15

JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) – Bearish 

It’s not a pretty trend down, but it’s down and holding within the trend lines. I’d like to see a gap below $28.00 to show a tradable trend because this has been one choppy mess last week.

JNUG 11-27-15

JPNL (Japan) – Sideways

In my review last week I mentioned Japan could quickly move into a sideways consolidation once it hits $51.00 and it looks like that’s what it’s decided to do. A bullish move would be a solid break above $51.00 but until then, then lines in the sand have been drawn between $47 – $51.

JPNL 11-27-15

RUSL (Russia) – Bearish

We have the full confirmation of a bearish trend now. Last week I was calling for a possible reversal at $19.00 which we never saw again. We have now fallen back under the longer term trend lines lower and possibly filling out this rare expanding triangle. Possible support at $15.00, but if that falls through quickly I’d be looking at $13.50 – $13.00 as the next level target down.

RUSL 11-27-15

SOXL (US Semi Conductors) – Undecided possibly bearish

SOXL has been trending down ever so slightly, but well within the confines of a downward trend channel. The moving averages are all pretty much flat so they don’t come into play. We had a small gap up on the short Friday trading session, but that’s just it. It was a short trading session so despite the move up out of it’s existing trend lines, it doesn’t quite signal a bullish reversal yet. A solid move above $28.00 with a close in the $28.50 Mon/Tue next week will have me looking at a bullish move higher.

SOXL 11-27-15

SPXL (S&P 500) – Undecided

Last week provided very little movement for SPXL. I’m still waiting for a move above $92 to call this bullish now. I was bullish last week expecting more movement higher, but the break above $92 has yet to be hit. The longer it stays at this level the more chance it has to turn back lower.

SPXL 11-27-15

TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) – Short Term Bullish

Last week didn’t produce much for TMF in the way of price action as it creeps closer and closer now to it’s previous sideways channel of $76.50 – $82.50. Price needs to break $76.50 to confirm the continued bullish movement otherwise $76.50 could become a resistance level and a reverse point. It has a little further to go before this test.

TMF 11-27-15

UGAZ (Natural Gas) – Bearish

Last week I called for further bearishness lasting 3-4 days and we are still on that trajectory. The large gap down on Friday could easily be a signal for another down day or two, but I’d be looking at the lower trend line as a possible short term reversal around $2.25 as a target.

UGAZ 11-27-15

UGLD (Gold) – Bearish

Gold mad a significant move down on Friday with a gap out of a short term triangle. The fact that we have a very STEEP move down within trendiness means this will continue but most likely only for the short term. We could very well see a very sharp bounce when this finishes. I’ll be looking for a double digit % move higher to signal the reversal. Until then, gold is on track to break a multi year lower level trend line which it usually can’t fall through for very far.

UGLD 11-27-15

UWTI (Crude Oil) – Sideways / Bearish

Another week has passed and though prices have been volatile, UWTI still has yet to break and trend below $7.00. I’m still looking at $7.00 as a support level and there is certainly a price battle going on at this level, but the real trade is a drop below $7.00 or a bullish move if we can rise and hold above $8.00.

UWTI 11-27-15

XIV (Inverse VIX) – Bullish/Bearish Breakout soon

The triangle continues to expand and my analysis from last week still holds. We have yet to break above the $30.00 marker signaling a bullish move and $30.00 has not shown to be a resistance level. I imagine this picture will start to fill in this week as we have a full trading week and a great deal of scheduled news announcements that will finally send XIV in one direction or the other.

XIV 11-27-15

YINN (China) – Bearish

Last week I observed China start a new downtrend channel only to bounce back up safely into it’s previous sideways channel. Now with only a few additional trading days added in it’s clear the downward trend is the clear winner. I left my old trend lines in as an indicator of a resumption of the downward trend and Friday’s move down almost dropped us right back in that direction. All of this occurred on negative news that securities companies in China were being investigated which caused a 5-6% drop in Chinese markets. This kind of news could have much more damaging effects than the one day drop on Friday so I’m more confident of this bearish downtrend.

YINN 11-27-15

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11-30-15 Trading Strategy

 

11-30-15 – Trading Strategy

Current Sell List


Sell YANG (Inverse China) Limit @ $105 (15.38% Profit)
Sell YANG (Inverse China) Stop Limit @ $91.05 (.05% Profit)

Current Buy List


Order Cancels Order
Buy EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Stop Limit @ $42.90

Buy EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Limit @ $41.50

Buy RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $28.00 
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $30.00 (7.14% Profit)

Current Holdings


 Real time portfolio updates are now available here

11/16/15 – YANG (Inverse China) @ $91.00

Today’s Updates


DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) limit order sold @ $16.00 for an 11.11% profit

Market Snapshot 11-27-15

It’s almost as if Monday’s set the tone for the week as we wrapped up Friday with a mess of red across the globe. It’s difficult to say how much of the Equities markets were affected by the investigations of major financial institutions in China causing a huge drop in the Chinese Markets on Friday.

Expect another volatile week as there is a lot on the economic calendar.

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

I will cover the major highlights for next week in my weekly YouTube video, but there are some positives to highlight as we near wrapping up November.

DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) limit order sold @ $16.00 for an 11.11% profit

DGAZ 11-27-15

Looking at the chart of DGAZ (Natural Gas) you can see how solid the trade setup is once you get a gap down below support and enter new low territory. It doesn’t happen often, but it’s a solid trade setup. I’m personally happy with the gains and now have to just wait to see how far it goes now.

UGAZ 11-27-15

YINN (China) cannot be ignored. The bad news from China is working in my favor in a big way. Fortunately I took this trade due to a breakout originally from support just like I did with DGAZ, however it pulled back, but not enough to stop me out. All of the indicators are now in my favor with PPO turning negative with the big drop on Friday, price is well below all 3 major moving averages (20-50-100) and we are close to climbing back into the original downtrend channel. The best part, is this is on day one of the major move down.

This could turn out to be one of my biggest trades of the year if I play it right and if I’m lucky. The last time the Chinese markets fell 5-6% in one day they fell 20-30% lower.

I don’t want t hold onto this for more than 1-2 days if I can scoop up substantial gains though.

YINN 11-27-15

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 11/30/15



Sell YANG (Inverse China) Limit @ $105 (15.38% Profit)

Sell YANG (Inverse China) Stop Limit @ $91.05 (.05% Profit)

You may wonder why do I have a sell order tomorrow for $105 when this could be a major move. I’m currently setting my sell order at 2x the 7-day ATR for tomorrow which actually comes in at $102.85 so $105 is a huge stretch for tomorrows target. If it hits that, there would most likely be a reversal. If there is more bad news out tomorrow and another large gain I will increase my sell order.

At a minimum, I’m moving up my stop order. I was pretty far behind in this trade earlier and now I’m going to try and eliminate any loss on this trade.

YANG 11-27-15

New Open Orders for 11/30/15


Order Cancels Order
Buy EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Stop Limit @ $42.90

Buy EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Limit @ $41.50

I really like this chart of EDC (Emerging Markets) it’s stayed within the trend lines I drew last week, it reversed off the 50-day EMA in yellow and the top of the trend line and now it’s starting another downtrend in the direction of the larger down trend with an opening gap lower and a lower close for the day. PPO is negative, but the moving averages are a bit too close already to give it much weight. Either way, I have a number of other indications this will head towards the lower end of the trend channel next week.

I am putting in a stop limit order to try and catch this if it gaps and goes tomorrow. These sometimes are high risk because of the opening gap and then an intraday reversal, but this momentum is pretty clear and with a 4% ATR I think worth the risk.

Chart of EDC (Emerging Markets) and it’s move lower

EDC 11-27-15

My orders for Monday in EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets)

EDZ 11-27-15

Buy RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $28.00 
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $30.00 (7.14% Profit)

RUSL has been tricky. It bounced off resistance at $19.00 and I was looking to play it to the downside on Tue last week if the pattern gapped lower and kept going lower, but it did the opposite and it appeared I was validated on Wednesday by staying out after and up day. Then Friday comes along for a whopping gap lower and more movement to close which is what I was looking for two days earlier.

Russia has been quite volatile, so I’m going to ask for a discount. I may change my mind and play RUSS tomorrow morning if it looks like I won’t have a chance of a pullback and I’ll email if that changes, but for now, I’m bidding for a discount.

Chart of RUSL (Russia)

RUSL 11-27-15

My order for RUSS (Inverse Russia) on Monday

RUSS 11-27-15

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