Monthly Archives: September 2015

10-1-15 – Trading Strategy

10-1-15 – Trading Strategy

Current Buy List


Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) Limit @ $125.00 (19.86% Profit)
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) Stop @ $102.00 (2.02% Loss)

Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $27.50 (4.96% Profit)
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $24.50 (6.49% Loss)

Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $47.00 (11.90% Profit)
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Stop @ $39.00 (7.14% Loss)

Buy JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $8.50
Sell JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $10.00 (17.65% Profit)

Buy YANG (Inverse China) Limit @ $105.00
Sell YANG (Inverse China) Stop @ $120.00 (14.29% Profit)

Current Holdings


 Real time portfolio updates are now available here

9/25/15 – DWTI (Inverse Crude) @ $104.29
9/29/15 – DRV (Inverse Real Estate) @ $25.20
9/29/15 – RUSS (Inverse Russia) @ $40.77

Today’s Updates


Complete synchronization in the markets today. All of the markets but the conservavite investments taking the hits TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds), UGAZ (Natural Gas) and UGLD (Gold). Many markets hitting half their ATR or a full ATR move today. It’s very fishy when the globe moves in sync down and then in sync up. There is very big money being moved around and I’m speculative that this is about to fall off a cliff.

wile-e-coyote

From looking at the daily percentage moves you would think we were in a bullish market, however I’d be very careful to watch for a sharp reversal either tomorrow or Friday. All of these markets are still trending down or in sideways consolidations.

Market Snapshot 9-30-15

Only TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) had the signs of any possible bullish move and it’s struggling to break resistance at $80.00

TMF 9-30-15

EDC (Emerging Markets) closed at it’s previous support level of $12.00 so we’ll see if it’s going to jump up to it’s 20-day EMA in purple and reverse or if I’m completely wrong about these markets and we are in for a major reversal of fortune.

EDC 9-30-15

INDL (India) is broke it’s 20-day EMA today, but this could easily be filling out a sideways consolidation as it’s approaching a previous high tested twice already.

INDL 9-18-15

SPXL (S&P 500) also had a nice day, but it remains within it’s downward trendiness. The next two days are very significant to tell if this bullish reversal has legs.

SPXL 9-30-15

UGAZ (Natural Gas) really took a nice hit today at 6.75% with it’s daily ATR of 8.35 and is showing strong momentum down each day. I’m almost second guessing myself for putting my bets on the energy market in DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil), but both of these markets usually sync up within a few days so I’m expecting to see UWTI (Crude Oil) follow suit shortly.

UGAZ 9-30-15

UGLD (Gold) is pulling away strongly from it’s 50-day EMA in Yellow. Gold prices can’t be manipulated as easily as strong inflows into ETFs & Stocks, so I’m going to keep attempting to get into JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) as this should be following suit soon.

UGLD 9-30-15

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 9/30/15


Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) Limit @ $125.00 (19.86% Profit)
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) Stop @ $102.00 (2.02% Loss)

UWTI (Crude Oil) closed higher, but only barely made a new high compared to yesterday and today’s low was one penny away from yesterday’s low. So looking at the high/low range of today to yesterday I’d call this a flat day. This could be the calm before the storm as Natural Gas has already taken a big hit and this could easily cause the gap down below $10.00 tomorrow or Friday that I’m looking for.

I still have to acknowledge that I was up over 9% in this trade when I first got in and now I’m only up 2%. We’ll have to see if going for the home run instead of the double was the right move.

Today’s Chart of UWTI (Crude Oil)

UWTI 9-30-15

My orders for tomorrow in DWTI (Inverse Crude) are still the same

DWTI 9-30-15

Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $27.50 (4.96% Profit)
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $24.50 (6.49% Loss)

I think we have confirmation that DRN (Real Estate) is no longer in a triangle and it was prudent to start tracing out new trend lines. We’ve kissed the top and I’m down 3% in the position. The 7-day ATR stop in DRV (Inverse Real Estate) $1.10 tomorrow could bring this down to $24.10 and stop me out of my $24.50 stop limit. However, I never move my stops lower. This is where you grit your teeth and hope your analysis is right. For the past two weeks, I would have had a stop that took me out today, but I’m trying to adapt to the more volatile market and open things up, taking on more risk, so let’s see if it’s going to pay off or if I have to pay up!

Today’s chart of DRN (Real Estate) hitting the top trend line

DRN 9-30-15

Same orders for tomorrow price movement down to my stop would invalidate this chart and I still feel is a good area to admit I’m wrong if it hits

DRV 9-30-15

Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $47.00 (11.90% Profit)
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Stop @ $39.00 (7.14% Loss)

My strategy this week has been to get in early before an anticipated move instead of jumping in when I have confirmation. I would have normally waited for RUSL (Russia) to drop below $13 for final bearish confirmation, but I was missing out on my order entries. Now we will see if that back fires. I’m anticipating a drop below $13, but instead we has a small increase in RUSL (Russia) and my position in RUSS (Inverse Russia) is down about 3%. It’s not a lot, but since I’m not getting in on the breakout, I shouldn’t expect to be in the green the very next day like I usually am on breakout trades.

If you are following this trade and haven’t taken position, you may want to wait until confirmation if $13.00 is broken and see if you fair better.

RUSL 9-30-15

Same orders for RUSS (Inverse Russia) tomorrow

RUSS 9-30-15

New Open Orders for 10/1/15


Buy JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $8.50
Sell JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $10.00 (17.65% Profit)

I still have to go for this trade, with Gold dropping even further, it will affect JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) sooner or later. I think JNUG is simply benefiting from this end-of-the-month injection of cash into the markets and will soon take it’s place next to Gold and break it’s support level of $17.00

Today’s Chart of JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) it gapped open at $6.90, but closed higher. I don’t think for long.

JNUG 9-30-15

My orders for tomorrow in JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners)

JDST 9-30-15

Buy YANG (Inverse China) Limit @ $105.00
Sell YANG (Inverse China) Stop @ $120.00 (14.29% Profit)

Still bearish on China, especially happy to see at drop of 7.74% in YANG (Inverse China) when it’s 7-day ATR % is 6.57%. I’m going to lower my limit order from $110 to $105 which is near tomorrow 7-day ATR. China is too volatile to not get the best possible price, especially since it’s already fallen for so many days in a row, another bullish day should be allowed since it didn’t drop as significant as I needed it today.

Today’s chart of YINN (China)

YINN 9-30-15

My updated order for YANG (Inverse China) for tomorrow

YANG 9-30-15

9-30-15 – Trading Strategy

9-30-15 – Trading Strategy

Current Buy List


Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) Limit @ $125.00 (19.86% Profit)
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) Stop @ $102.00 (2.02% Loss)

Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $27.50 (4.96% Profit)
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $24.50 (6.49% Loss)

Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $47.00 (11.90% Profit)
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Stop @ $39.00 (7.14% Loss)

Buy JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $8.50
Sell JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $10.00 (17.65% Profit)

Buy YANG (Inverse China) Limit @ $110.00
Sell YANG (Inverse China) Stop @ $120.00 (9.09% Profit)

Current Holdings


 Real time portfolio updates are now available here

9/25/15 – DWTI (Inverse Crude) @ $104.29
9/29/15 – DRV (Inverse Real Estate) @ $25.20
9/29/15 – RUSS (Inverse Russia) @ $40.77

Today’s Updates


RUSS (Inverse Russia) limit order filled @ $42.00
DRV (Inverse Real Estate) limit order filled at @ $26.20

The not surprising up-day kicked off with a rather mild bullish pullback. Many of the markets in green were well below their ATR levels and with as many bearish days as we have been having in a row this wasn’t unexpected.

More surprising of a move was UGAZ (Natural Gas) with a massive opening gap today, hopefully UWTI (Crude Oil) will be next to follow.

Market Snapshot 9-29-15

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 9/30/15


Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) Limit @ $125.00 (19.86% Profit)
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) Stop @ $102.00 (2.02% Loss)

I purposely left my stop at $102 because I was trying to account for any continued upward movement in this existing triangle. With UGAZ (Natural Gas) gapping down so much today, I should be able to ride that same momentum down in UWTI (Crude Oil).

Keeping the exact same orders for tomorrow.

Today’s chart of UWTI (Crude Oil) continuing to fill out it’s triangle consolidation

UWTI 9-29-15

My orders for tomorrow in DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil)

DWTI 9-29-15

Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $27.50 (4.96% Profit)
Sell DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $24.50 (6.49% Loss)

Looks like I could have asked for a better price, however because this was originally a triangle breakout, I’ve been trying to adapt from earlier in the week and not ask for such steep discounts on breakout moves. DRN (Real Estate) didn’t break yesterday’s high which is optimistic. However it did close right on the 20-day EMA and PPO turned positive. I’m keeping a wide stop on this one, because most of the global markets are negative.

I’ve also decided to trace this out as a downtrend pattern as it seems to fit better now than a triangle. With this many days encompassed, we’re seeing a clear down trend with lower highs and lower lows. I could probably bump up my stop even more, but I’m leaving it at 1x the 7-day ATR of $1.12 because the longer term trend is down, we’re not breaking new highs prior and this looks like a good spot to be in compared to previous lows that have shown can be hit.

Finally, I’ve put in a 1.5x ATR for tomorrow order for profit, but I feel I will be able to increase that and move my stop up with it as the week plays out.

Today’s chart of DRN (Real Estate)

DRN 9-29-15

My orders for tomorrow in DRV (Inverse Real Estate)

DRV 9-29-15

Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $47.00 (11.90% Profit)
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Stop @ $39.00 (7.14% Loss)

Again, I am opening up my stop here to 1x the 7-day ATR of $2.80. We haven’t seen full day moves against RUSS (Inverse Russia) in a while, so I may not need to leave my stop this far out, however this aligns well with an attempted gap fill in RUSL (Russia). I’m not quite a 2:1 profit/risk ratio, but if RUSL breaks below $13.00 I should be able to keep increasing my limit order as the drop could last a couple of days.

** Of note, 7% is getting up to the maximum you should ever allow a market to move. This trade is based on $13.00 being broken. We’ve tested it a couple of times and now it’s holding, but with the global markets continuing to trend down, support levels haven’t been holding, but as you’ve seen in my weekly analysis, many of my stops have been too tight and if I want to be trading these markets I have to open myself up a bit more.

I think my win % is high enough to allow for these potential losses because many of my losses this month have been correct about the direction, but too tight on the stops.

RUSL 9-29-15

Chart of where I want in RUSS (Inverse Russia) for tomorrow

RUSS 9-29-15

New Open Orders for 9/30/15


Buy JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $8.50
Sell JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $10.00 (17.65% Profit)

Not much movement in JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) today, but some intraday movement  about half way from my buy point. JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) pretty much ended flat so I’m going to make a second attempt with the same order for JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) for tomorrow.

Chart of JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) today

JNUG 9-29-15

Orders for tomorrow in JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners)

JDST 9-29-15

Buy YANG (Inverse China) Limit @ $110.00
Sell YANG (Inverse China) Stop @ $120.00 (9.09% Profit)

Another down day in YINN (China) but fairly flat. We are down 6 days in a row now, so hopefully we can catch some brief news to get a pull back in YANG (Inverse China) to my buy point for tomorrow.

Today’s chart of YINN (China)YINN 9-29-15

Same orders for tomorrow in YANG (Inverse China)

YANG 9-29-15

9-29-15 – Trading Strategy

9-29-15 – Trading Strategy

 

Current Buy List


Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) Limit @ $125.00 (19.86% Profit)
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) Stop @ $102.00 (2.02% Loss)

Buy DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $26.20
Buy DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $26.80

Buy RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $42.00
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $47.00 (11.90% Profit)

Buy JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $8.50
Sell JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $10.00 (17.65% Profit)

Buy YANG (Inverse China) Limit @ $110.00
Sell YANG (Inverse China) Stop @ $120.00 (9.09% Profit)

Current Holdings


 Real time portfolio updates are now available here

9/25/15 – DWTI (Inverse Crude) @ $104.29
9/25/15 – SPXU (Inverse S&P 500) @ $41.80
9/25/15 – YANG (Inverse China) @ $94.00

Today’s Updates


SPXU (Inverse S&P 500) Limit order filled @ $41.80 for a (6.91% Profit)
YANG (Inverse China) Limit order filled @ $94.00 (9.09% Profit)

Good day in the markets for my positions, and bad for those that had any bullish inclinations. That was the big question over the weekend, would we see a bullish Monday followed by more bearish days, or just start out of the gate. Today was exceptionally bad (or good depending on your perspective) with almost all the markets hitting extreme lows at their 7-day ATR levels and some exceeding as you can see below.

This could be the start to a very bearish week, or a quick rebound with more to follow. I’ll share some more highlights below:

Market Snapshot 9-28-15

SPXU (Inverse S&P 500) Sold for a 6.91% Profit and looks like there was room for more.

SPXU 9-28-15

YANG (Inverse China) sold for a 9.09% Profit today. I still think this was the right move as we’re now on 5 straight days down for China, I would expect some kind of pullback so I can get back into this possibly.

YINN 9-28-15

JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) – Filling it’s final legs of the triangle. With gold showing signs of decline, I may try and preemptively get into this market.

JNUG 9-28-15

JPNL (Japan) – Had the pullback I was looking for, but I was still asking for too much. 

JPNL 9-28-15

UGLD (Gold) – a second clear bounce off the 100-day EMA in Orange showing a double top. Price has closed below all 3 moving averages in the direction of the major trend. PPO hasn’t turned negative, but I see this as a sign Gold is falling, and with JNUG in it’s final legs of a triangle I may be able to take a play there instead.

JNUG 9-28-15

 

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 9/29/15


Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) Limit @ $125.00 (19.86% Profit)
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) Stop @ $102.00 (2.02% Loss)

Very nice move in my favor today with the drop in UWTI (Crude Oil). We are still within the triangle and we need a clear close below $10.00. I don’t think $9.99 counts. The pattern today looks good as we did gap lower, tried to go higher intraday and ended unclosing even lower than the open. This could be the trigger before a larger gap or the start of a downtrend below $10.00

However, we could have another smaller bullish day as this triangle works through, so I’m pushing up my stop to limit losses, however I’m giving with one full 7-day ATR of movement which puts me at 2% below my original buy order. It would be a kick in the stomach to get stopped out after sitting on a 9% gain so far, but this is a volatile stock and it has the potential for very large returns.

Today’s chart of UWTI (Crude Oil)

UWTI 9-28-15

My orders for tomorrow in DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil)

DWTI 9-28-15

New Open Orders for 9/29/15


Order Cancels Order

Buy DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $26.20
Buy DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop Limit @ $26.80

DRN has now met all of the criteria I look for.

  • Price has broken below all 3 major moving averages
  • Price is following the larger trend (not only with itself, but the rest of the markets)
  • Price broke out of a consolidation triangle pattern
  • PPO has turned negative

I don’t want to miss out on this move so I’m putting in an OCO (Order Cancels Order) so whichever order is filled first wins. I’m putting my limit order at 50% the 7-day ATR of $1.16 and a stop limit buy order just above today’s close in DRV (Inverse Real Estate).

Today’s chart of DRN (Real Estate) breaking out to the downside out of consolidation

DRN 9-28-15

My orders for tomorrow in DRV (Inverse Real Estate)

DRV 9-28-15

Buy RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $42.00
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $47.00 (11.90% Profit)

RUSL (Russia) closed below the $13.00 support level today. Prices are below all 3 major moving averages and PPO turned negative. However we haven’t had a major correction yet to this larger move from 9/17. Tomorrow an FOMC member is speaking which could create some short term volatility in the market. I am putting in an order for 50% the 7-day ATR of $2.99. This is rather arbitrary because the ideal signal would be a big gap to the downside, I just can’t tell if it will be tested again before it breaks, so I’m playing it a bit safe, however I’m not asking for nearly as much of a discount.

Today’s chart of RUSL (Russia) closing below $13.00 support.

RUSL 9-28-15

My orders for RUSS (Inverse Russia) for tomorrow

RUSS 9-28-15

Buy JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $8.50
Sell JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) Limit @ $10.00 (17.65% Profit)

I’m trying to catch one last bullish move in JNUG before it breaks it’s support level of $7.00. However because of the insane volatility of this, I have to ask for a steep discount. Putting in even a limit order for any premium is simply crazy with a market that can move 10-15% in a single day.

Today’s chart of JNUG testing $7.00 support again

JNUG 9-28-15

Where I want in on JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) for tomorrow.

JDST 9-28-15

Buy YANG (Inverse China) Limit @ $110.00
Sell YANG (Inverse China) Stop @ $120.00 (9.09% Profit)

Let’s see if we can jump back in for another sale. Still bearish on China, but with so many days up in a row we might see some profit takers pushing the price back for a better rebuy.

YANG 9-28-15

 

 

 

 

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail
1 2 3 8