Monthly Archives: May 2015

6-1-15 – Trading Strategy

6-1-15 – Trading Strategy

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

5/27/15 – RUSS (Inverse Russia) @ $29.55
5/29/15 – DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) @ $70.40

Today’s Updates


EPV (Inverse Europe) Sold Limit @ $51.10 for a .59% gain

DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) Limit Order filled @ $70.40

– Markets continue their decline. I was worried about volatility, but it seems after this week the trends are mostly down. That is of course if you are investing in Crude (UWTI) which I thought would make a small move down before it headed up, but I was way off and I’m already deep in the negative on this position. It’s interesting to note that UGAZ (Natural Gas) is going down like I expected crude would as well. Unfortunately, I can still be correct about crude and it’s downward direction but can easily be stopped out based on how much I’m willing to risk on the trade.

I missed out on EPV (Inverse Emerging Markets) because I didn’t use an OCO (Order Cancels Order), but sometimes risk decisions are gut instinct and I didn’t want to deal with the volatility. I’ll be closing out May with on another profitable month, just not as much as I was forecasting.

Market Snapshot 5-29-15

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 6/1/15


Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $33.75 (14.15% Profit)
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Stop @ $30.50 (3.21% Profit)

RUSL (Russia) appears to be on the start of a good downtrend so I’m pushing my order for tomorrow up to 1.5x (Average Trading Range) of $1.54 to see if I can push one more profitable day. Just like most statistics, it’s in frequent that a stock will close up or down 6 days in a row, but on the final day it can make a new high before turning over and I’m going to take a chance at those few extra percentage points. I’m also pushing up my stop to try and secure some kind of profit.

Chart of RUSL (Russia) as it stands now.

RUSL 5-29-15

Here are my new sell areas in RUSS (Inverse Russia)

RUSS 5-29-15

Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude) Limit @ $78.95 (12.94% Profit)
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude) Stop @ $62.20 (11.65% Loss)

– Wouldn’t it be great if DWTI did a complete reversal tomorrow?!?!? Yes, much like the surprise in YINN (China) Crude dropped massively on Friday. At least it was wise NOT to put in an OCO (Order Cancels Order) and I save a couple of percentage points putting in a limit order.

There are some positives though, the price is STILL within the downward trend lines, so as frustrating as it is to see this dramatic movement, unless I picked the bottom, it’s technically still in a down trend. Monday needs to show a quick reversal to confirm though.

Here you can see the chart of UWTI (Crude Oil) and prices still within the longer term downward trend lines. (Also to note is natural gas is falling which should weigh down this market as well).

UWTI 5-29-15

My orders for Monday in DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil)

DWTI 5-29-15

New Open Orders for 6/1/15


Order Cancels Order

Buy DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop @ $25.25
Buy DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $24.60

– Real estate is showing a steady price decline which I like to see. Price is under all 3 moving averages and the 20-day EMA in purple is holding nicely. Price remains within it’s downward trend lines and PPO is negative which is what I like to see.

Chart of DRN (Real Estate)

DRN 5-29-15

Where I want in on DRV (Inverse Real Estate) 

DRV 5-29-15

Buy EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Stop @ $30.10
Buy EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Limit @ $29.50

– I missed out on a lower price on Friday, so I’m doing an OCO (Order Cancels Order) for Monday. If you look at the chart of EDC (Emerging Markets) it meets all the criteria.

  • Price has broken below all 3 moving averages (20-50-100)
  • Price has broke out of it’s upward trend line and a consolidation
  • PPO (Price Percentage Oscillator) is negative confirming the downtrend
  • EDC comprises of Asia and European markets so the big drop in China and worries over Greece could really work in my favor on this ETF

Here is chart of EDC (Emerging Markets) which looks like a perfect downward move to me.

EDC 5-29-15

Here are my entries for Monday in EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets)

EDZ 5-29-15

Order Cancels Order

Buy TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop @ $78.55
Buy TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $77.20

TMF has finally passed a resistance level that I was waiting for. It’s shown a fairly clear bottom and with it’s crossing above the 20-day EMA in purple, I am feeling comfortable we have made the turn to the upside especially with 5 days in a row of PPO being positive.

TMF 5-29-15

Order Triggers Order

Buy UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $1.80
Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $1.91 (6% Profit)

– This is a volatility trade. I like to do these when I see extreme moves that could reverse for a quick sell. I have done this a great deal with JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) but basically, I’m betting that natural gas will go down 6 days in a row, but if it does, it will reverse some and I can sell for a small profit. 6% will come out to $1,100 which is a nice turn around if it hits. My order is for another 6% less than what it closed at on Friday, and with the daily ATR of 12.44% I may be risking a couple of additional points of downside.

UGAZ 5-29-15

Stocks on the Watch – $BRZU $EDC $RUSL $TMF $UGAZ – 5.31.15

Closed out May profitable, but I had a surprise $2,800 loss in YINN (China) that took me down to ~4k for the month. However, I’ll still make a fantastic return for the year if I pull out those kinds of profits each month for the rest of the year.

Examine my full history of trades here.

Trading Performance May 2015

Market volatility remained early in the week with a huge reversal specifically in China that took me by surprise. However, I’m getting the feeling new downtrends are forming that may make playing the markets short this week profitable.

 

 

Brazil – Bearish

Brazil continues to move lower and show no signs of slowing. I’m waiting for a slight correction this week and continued downward movement.

BRZU 5-29-15

EDC (Emerging Markets) – Bearish

– Looking at the uptrend that has held for so many months, we have a clear break down of prices below all 3 major moving averages (20-50-100).

EDC Stock Chart 5-29-15

RUSL (Russia) – Bearish

– Last week I was waiting for Russia to break above it’s resistance level $38.00, but it failed to do so which kept me safe, now it’s clearly reversing direction outside of it’s triangle consolidation and I’m quickly changing my view since we have downward confirmation.

RUSL Stock Chart 5-29-15

TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) – Bullish

– Now that TMF has moved above it’s resistance level I’m looking for it to continue it’s bullish move next week.

TMF 5-29-15

UGAZ (Natural Gas) – Continued Bearish

– Last week I was calling for more downward movement in Natural gas and it appears to still have more downside room to go.

UGAZ Stock Chart 5-29-15

 

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail

5-29-15 Trading Strategy

5-29-15 – Trading Strategy

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

5/27/15 – EPV (Inverse Europe) @ $50.80
5/27/15 – RUSS (Inverse Russia) @ $29.55

Today’s Updates


 

YINN (China) Stoped out @ $55.35 for a 14.04% Loss
BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit order filled @ $89.60 for a 6.67% Profit

– Markets are nothing buy volatile. My position in YINN took a big hit this morning with an enormous gap down. My increased stop limit was rendered useless by today’s opening action. This happens in volatile markets and there is little I can do about it. I did however offset it slightly with my order being filled in BZQ. I have to be extra conservative in my trades or I could lose my progress this month.

Market Snapshot 5-28-15

 

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 5/29/15


Sell EPV (Inverse Europe) Limit @ $51.10 (.59% Profit)
Sell EPV (Inverse Europe) Stop @ $49.80 (1.97% Loss)

– The morning looked good with most of my position recovering, but it closed about dead even for the day which means I’m keeping the same orders for tomorrow.

EPV 5-28-15

Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $31.95 (8.12% Profit)
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Stop @ $28.85 (2.37% Loss)

– With the strong recovery at the end of the day, I’m concerned a reversal may be developing. Even though I increased my profit in the position, I am going to move up my stop to limit downside.

RUSS 5-28-15

New Open Orders for 5/29/15


Order Triggers Order
Buy DWTI (Inverse Crude) Limit @ $70.40
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude) Limit @ $78.95 (12.94% Profit)

– Crude is still in it’s down trend, so I’m going to see if I can get in at a better price tomorrow again.

Today’s Chart

UWTI 5-28-15

Tomorrow’s Entry

DWTI 5-28-15

 

Buy EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Limit @ $28.70

EDC has broken below it’s 100 day moving average, PPO is has been negative for a number of days and it’s moved out of it’s upward trend lines. Because the markets have been volatile I don’t want to over pay so I’m making this a limit only order.

Chart of EDC (Emerging Markets)

EDC 5-28-15

Where I want in

EDZ 5-28-15

1 2 3 8