6-1-15 – Trading Strategy
Real time portfolio updates are now available here
5/27/15 – RUSS (Inverse Russia) @ $29.55
5/29/15 – DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) @ $70.40
EPV (Inverse Europe) Sold Limit @ $51.10 for a .59% gain
DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil) Limit Order filled @ $70.40
– Markets continue their decline. I was worried about volatility, but it seems after this week the trends are mostly down. That is of course if you are investing in Crude (UWTI) which I thought would make a small move down before it headed up, but I was way off and I’m already deep in the negative on this position. It’s interesting to note that UGAZ (Natural Gas) is going down like I expected crude would as well. Unfortunately, I can still be correct about crude and it’s downward direction but can easily be stopped out based on how much I’m willing to risk on the trade.
I missed out on EPV (Inverse Emerging Markets) because I didn’t use an OCO (Order Cancels Order), but sometimes risk decisions are gut instinct and I didn’t want to deal with the volatility. I’ll be closing out May with on another profitable month, just not as much as I was forecasting.
Current Holdings with Open Orders for 6/1/15
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Limit @ $33.75 (14.15% Profit)
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) Stop @ $30.50 (3.21% Profit)
– RUSL (Russia) appears to be on the start of a good downtrend so I’m pushing my order for tomorrow up to 1.5x (Average Trading Range) of $1.54 to see if I can push one more profitable day. Just like most statistics, it’s in frequent that a stock will close up or down 6 days in a row, but on the final day it can make a new high before turning over and I’m going to take a chance at those few extra percentage points. I’m also pushing up my stop to try and secure some kind of profit.
Chart of RUSL (Russia) as it stands now.
Here are my new sell areas in RUSS (Inverse Russia)
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude) Limit @ $78.95 (12.94% Profit)
Sell DWTI (Inverse Crude) Stop @ $62.20 (11.65% Loss)
– Wouldn’t it be great if DWTI did a complete reversal tomorrow?!?!? Yes, much like the surprise in YINN (China) Crude dropped massively on Friday. At least it was wise NOT to put in an OCO (Order Cancels Order) and I save a couple of percentage points putting in a limit order.
There are some positives though, the price is STILL within the downward trend lines, so as frustrating as it is to see this dramatic movement, unless I picked the bottom, it’s technically still in a down trend. Monday needs to show a quick reversal to confirm though.
Here you can see the chart of UWTI (Crude Oil) and prices still within the longer term downward trend lines. (Also to note is natural gas is falling which should weigh down this market as well).
My orders for Monday in DWTI (Inverse Crude Oil)
New Open Orders for 6/1/15
Order Cancels Order
Buy DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Stop @ $25.25
Buy DRV (Inverse Real Estate) Limit @ $24.60
– Real estate is showing a steady price decline which I like to see. Price is under all 3 moving averages and the 20-day EMA in purple is holding nicely. Price remains within it’s downward trend lines and PPO is negative which is what I like to see.
Chart of DRN (Real Estate)
Where I want in on DRV (Inverse Real Estate)
Buy EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Stop @ $30.10
Buy EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets) Limit @ $29.50
– I missed out on a lower price on Friday, so I’m doing an OCO (Order Cancels Order) for Monday. If you look at the chart of EDC (Emerging Markets) it meets all the criteria.
- Price has broken below all 3 moving averages (20-50-100)
- Price has broke out of it’s upward trend line and a consolidation
- PPO (Price Percentage Oscillator) is negative confirming the downtrend
- EDC comprises of Asia and European markets so the big drop in China and worries over Greece could really work in my favor on this ETF
Here is chart of EDC (Emerging Markets) which looks like a perfect downward move to me.
Here are my entries for Monday in EDZ (Inverse Emerging Markets)
Order Cancels Order
Buy TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Stop @ $78.55
Buy TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Limit @ $77.20
– TMF has finally passed a resistance level that I was waiting for. It’s shown a fairly clear bottom and with it’s crossing above the 20-day EMA in purple, I am feeling comfortable we have made the turn to the upside especially with 5 days in a row of PPO being positive.
Order Triggers Order
Buy UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $1.80
Sell UGAZ (Natural Gas) Limit @ $1.91 (6% Profit)
– This is a volatility trade. I like to do these when I see extreme moves that could reverse for a quick sell. I have done this a great deal with JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) but basically, I’m betting that natural gas will go down 6 days in a row, but if it does, it will reverse some and I can sell for a small profit. 6% will come out to $1,100 which is a nice turn around if it hits. My order is for another 6% less than what it closed at on Friday, and with the daily ATR of 12.44% I may be risking a couple of additional points of downside.