Monthly Archives: March 2015

4-1-15 – Trading Strategy

4-1-15 Trading Strategy

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

3/27/15 – BZQ (Inverse Brazil) @ $106.61
3/31/15 – YINN (China) @ $41.00

Today’s Updates


YINN (China) Filled @ $41.00

The pinball action of the markets continues like it has been for the past few months with even more unpredictability. My best advice is to either not be in the markets or be willing to take on more risk. The uncertainty has no patterns and previous pricing patterns, such as Junior Gold Miners not holding more than a 4-day up or down streak are taking on new statistical norms. Markets go through phases of impulsive mania, determined panic, and just plane nonsensical. We are seeing corrective movements across many of the markets and nothing of exceptional price action was seen today.

Market Snapshot 3-31-15

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 4/1/15


Sell BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $120.90 (13.4% Profit)
Sell BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Stop @ $94.50 (11.36% Loss)

– My previous stop @ $101.50 would have been stopped out today. I am transitioning to trading by chart invalidation points vs my acceptable profit losses. Brazil is still technically in a down trend, but with the last two up days, if tomorrow is another up day I may have to re-evaluate or hold steady to my $94.50 stop.

BZQ 3-31-15

Sell YINN (China) Limit @ $44.90 (9.51% Profit)
Sell YINN (China) Stop @ $39.20 (4.39% Loss)

– Putting in my stop down where the move started. If the gap is filled then this is most likely not an impulsive move. Otherwise $44.90 should be ab easy target.

YINN 3-31-15

New Open Orders for 4/1/15


– No new orders for tomorrow. Nothing is within the proper buying range and the markets are just too unpredictable to try and play volatility trades currently.

 

3-31-15 – Trading Strategy

3-31-15 – Trading Strategy

 

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

3/27/15 – BZQ (Inverse Brazil) @ $106.61

Today’s Updates


Strong rebound in many markets today, but if you saw last night’s video, nothing enough to push us into “buy” territory. However, YINN (China) had an eye opening movement today which I’ll cover next.

Market Snapshot 3-30-15

 

I had mentioned I would be bullish on China (YINN) if it broke it’s previous high, but with it’s WOPPING 11.53% gain today (it’s average is only 3.97%) it really stood out. So does this mean it’s time to buy?

Here is what I found in the news:

http://news.investors.com/033015-745692-china-stocks-rally.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

YINN 3-30-15

I hate trying to “interpret” the news because you never know if you have all the information or if the information you do have is going to be interpreted by everyone the same to be of benefit.

From a technical standpoint, this is a great move and is what we look for on a buy. It’s also taken YINN to the highest it’s ever been and that’s a hugely positive sign.

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 3/31/15


Sell BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $120.90 (13.4% Profit)
Sell BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Stop @ $94.50 (11.36% Loss)

– A correction in BZQ wasn’t unexpected today with the many days up from last week, however, it came very close to the daily trading range of 5.66% by falling 5.31% today. My position wasn’t stopped out, but what concerns me, is I will be stopped out prematurely like previous trades before the recovery.

I never advocate moving a stop, but looking at the bigger picture and the long term downward movement of Brazil, I think it’s prudent to stay with this position and ride out the movement. I’ve been stopped out prematurely too often recently, and I’m going to open up the trade to accept more risk.

New Open Orders for 3/31/15


Order Cancels Order

Buy YINN (China) Limit @ $41.00
Buy YINN (China) Stop @ $43.00

– You can’t be afraid to buy something that hits new ground as that shows the power of the bulls. This isn’t an exhausted rally and there is news backing this up with QE support from the government. Putting in an OCO to get into this if it gaps open or if I can get in cheaper.

YINN 3-30-15

 

 

3-30-15 – Trading Strategy

3-30-15 – Trading Strategy

 

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

3/27/15 – BZQ (Inverse Brazil) @ $106.61

Stocks on the Watch for Next week


 

https://www.b12trader.com/stocks-on-the-watch-for-3-30-15/

 

Today’s Updates


BZQ (Inverse Brazil) filled @ $101.61

Market Snapshot 3-27-15

 

The week finished off with another mixed bag of uncertainty. Many of my losses would have turned quite profitable had I been a dime or two more liberal. Sharp price reversals on Friday especially in the US based markets, assuming this was due to profit takers.

This has certainly been a very difficult market to trade in. More risk has to be allowed to ensure profits. However, Risk tolerance is a personal choice and I have failed to allow for the necessary risk to pull out profits the last couple of weeks.

Trading is based on time perspective as well, my goal, ideally, is to show profits each month, but I don’t use my trading account for monthly income, but longer term growth and the spontaneous withdraw for high ticket items. My focus is maintaining a steady increase in profits so I am profitable at the end of the year.

My 2014 started out very similar to my performance thus far, but within a couple of months I had enormous returns that reclaimed all my losses and put me on the fast track to a very profitable year.

Remember to always to maintain perspective, there will always be difficult months. It doesn’t mean your trading style doesn’t work, it just means you need to make slight modifications. So what are those modifications? Here are a few to consider:

 

  • Stop Trading – Sit on your cash, if the markets are over volatile, wait until longer term price movements start to reach new highs or break longer terms of resistance. Step back from the shorter term perspective and look for trades that are breaking monthly trends
  • Focus on Smaller Profits – A win is a win, and small gains are very good for the self-confidence, even if they don’t make up for a negative account balance.
  • Take on more risk -Allow for more drawdown. If the stock you are investing in has a daily ATR of 10% or more, account for the fact that it’s higher than the recommended 8% maximum level of risk. If stocks are volatile, you can certainly lose more on a trade, but you can also gain more on a trade. I’ve had many 15,20 and even 25% losses and recouped them with similar gains in the opposite direction.Never take on more risk without making calculated adjustments. For example, I lost 8% on JDST this week, because that was my loss limit. If I had allowed it to drop to 10-11% that would have been enough cushion to put me near my original 15% gain!

Unless you are trading for monthly income, it’s the year end result that counts. Make sure you study all of your trades at least monthly to see if you were completely wrong to be in the trade, or if the technique you used caused a different outcome.

For example, my issues this month again were too low of entry orders (missing on big moves) and not allowing for more price movement (to aggressive on stop orders).

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 3/30/15


Sell BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Limit @ $120.90 (13.4% Profit)
Sell BZQ (Inverse Brazil) Stop @ $101.50 (4.79% Loss)

  • PPO Turned positive on BZQ today on my entry
  • Price is above all 3 moving averages
  • Price is following it’s long term uptrend lines

I’ve tracked BZQ for the last 2 years, and based on my trading style the average move is 19%. I’m going for 2x the daily ATR of $6.08 to sell in case it makes a big spike up on Monday. I’m putting my stop in below the 20-day EMA @ $101.50 which will invalidate my move if I’m wrong.

BZQ 3-27-15

New Open Orders for 3/30/15


No New orders for Monday, Friday’s reversals don’t confirm any new direction in the B12 Markets.

 

 

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