Monthly Archives: February 2015

3-2-15 – Trading Strategy

3-2-15 – Trading Strategy

 

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

2/26/15 – DGLD (Inverse Gold) @ $70.90
2/27/15 – DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) @ $7.41
2/27/15 – SOXL (US Semi Conductors) @ $150.10

Today’s Updates


** So I am human, I forgot to place my sell orders for DGLD on Friday. I should have been stopped out of the position if I had, but I’m still in it. **

DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) filled @ $7.41
SOXL (US Semi Conductors) filled @ $150.10

– More modest sideways movements in the markets. Many of my “Stocks on the Watch” came close, but reversed before the buy signals flashed. Patience pays off, you can either fight the market like I tried to do in January and get gut-checked, or you can modify your strategy and make the market show some more conviction. So far waiting has keep the losses more minimal. It will take only a couple of trades to make a big profit once some kind of direction is established.

Market Snapshot 2-27-15

My Stocks on the Watch Article is now available

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 3/2/15


Sell DGLD (Inverse Gold) Limit @ $74.30 (4.5% Profit)
Sell DGLD (Inverse Gold) Stop @ $69.80 (1.5% Loss)

– I should have been stopped out on Friday, I don’t see any reason to let this fall lower to invalid my speculative direction on Gold. Keeping the same order as on Friday.

Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Limit @ $8.50 (13.4% Profit)
Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Stop @ $7.15 (4.7% Loss)

– Volatility has been shrinking on Natural Gas, so I don’t feel I need to account for a wider potential loss before my direction on Natural Gas is invalidated. Keeping my win/loss ratio as close to 3:1 as possible.

DGAZ 2-27-15

Sell SOXL (US Semi Conductors) Limit @ $156.20 (4.06% Profit)
Sell SOXL (US Semi Conductors) Stop @ $146.60 (2.34% Loss)

– I’m just under 2:1 profit ratio for this trade, but that is only if it sells on Monday. I will increase my limit order if necessary. My only concern is the SPXL (S&P 500) failed to make a new high which could be an early indication SOXL won’t be able to go up much further on it’s own. US stocks move longer term in sync, so I may be able to squeeze out a day or two on SOXL before it also turns downward.

SOXL 2-17-15

New Open Orders for 3/2/15


 

– No new orders for Monday. My “Stocks on the Watch” didn’t trigger at all last week and nothing significant on Friday.

 

Stocks on the Watch 3.2.15

Hello everyone, here are the Stocks on the Watch for 3.2.15. I track 12 unique markets after work on a daily basis. It only takes about 15 minutes per day and my Premium Subscribers get daily updates as to what trades I’m making myself. Why not try a free 14-Day subscription and see for yourself?

Watch my YouTube Video below to get my Stock Market Week in Review report on all the 12 Markets I watch.

DRN (US Real Estate)

DRN Has been enjoying a healthy uptrend for the last four months and only recently has it shown a healthy correction. We are nearing the corrective territory that may validate it’s in a new downtrend or the correction may soon be over and we’ll resume the longer 4 month uptrend. I am continuing to watch this closely for validation.

DRN Stock Chart 2-27-15

EDC (Emerging Markets)

– EDC continues it’s sideways triangle consolidation. Once this battle of buyers vs sellers works itself out, a new direction should form. We need a solid confirmation above $26.00 for a bullish call, but a nice gap down with a couple down days following would be a good bearish sign.

EDC Stock Chart 2-27-15

TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds)

– TMF Just couldn’t reach it’s point of confirmation and break the 20-day EMA in purple. It turned down Thursday of last week and Friday couldn’t push it higher. More waiting to see if we get to a reasonable buy area next week.

TMF Stock Chart 2-27-15

 

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2-27-15 – Trading Strategy

2-27-15 – Trading Strategy

 

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

2/26/15 – DGLD (Inverse Gold) @ $70.90

Today’s Updates


SPXL (S&P 500) – Stopped @ $93.61 for a .39% gain
XIV (Daily Inverse VIX Short Term Futures) Stopped @ $31.89 for a .03% loss

 

– Not a great deal of action in the markets except the big stand out was Natural Gas. The setups I was waiting for in TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) and DRN (US Real Estate) are simply not maturing which means more patience until a solid trade can be taken. The uncertainty of what congress will do over funding for Homeland Security this weekend will certainly set the direction for next week.

Market Snapshot 2-25-15

DGLD (Inverse Gold) – Filled @ $70.90

– With XIV closing higher for today, it’s clear I set my stop too low. I broke even on the trade, but I’ll wait till next week to see if we make a substantial movement upwards that tells me I should get back in.

– I’ve had a feeling that the SPXL position was slowing down, unfortunately it didn’t go high enough to make more of a profit, but still squeaked out a small gain.

TMF (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) – I was waiting for confirmation today waiting for PPO to turn positive, but TMF reversed sharply today so I’m happy I waited.

TMF 2-26-15

 

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 2/27/15


Sell DGLD (Inverse Gold) Limit @ $74.30 (4.5% Profit)
Sell DGLD (Inverse Gold) Stop @ $69.80 (1.5% Loss)

DGLD 2-25-15

New Open Orders for 2/27/15


 

Buy SOXL (US Semi Conductors) Limit @ $150.10
Sell SOXL (US Semi Conductors) Limit @ $156.20 (4.06% Profit)

  • PPO is up
  • Price broke past the 3 moving averages 20-50-100 only a couple days ago
  • Price broke above it’s previous high before this choppy sideways trading started
  • We have hit a new price high
  • Now that I’m not in SPXL, it’s safe to renter another US ETF

SOXL 2-26-15

 

Buy DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Limit @ $7.50
Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Limit @ $8.50 (13.35% profit)

RISKY!!! This is a high ATR % stock. It’s current average daily trading range is 10.66%. It moved 18.52% today alone. I am personally comfortable with this as I have profited in the past, but I’ve also taken some lumps recently.

DGAZ 2-26-15

  • PPO Turned up today
  • We’ve now broken through all 3 moving averages 20-50-100
  • We have a solid bounce off the 100-day EMA in Orange
  • This is following the trend of Natural gas which has been long term DOWN
  • Historical study shows when the signal is this strong, the stock either gaps up the next day or moves down very little.

– Consider trading KOLD (Proshares Ultrashort Natural Gas) for less exposure. It’s daily trading range is 6.72%

KOLD 2-26-15

 

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