Monthly Archives: January 2015

1-30-15 – Trading Strategy

1-30-15 – Trading Strategy

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

1/21/15 – EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) @ $11.35

 

Today’s Updates


YINN (China) Stopped @ $37.90 for a 3.96% loss

– Big dip during the day with a strong recovery afterwards. This is a typical shake-out to take out the stops and I was one of them. Going to try and reestablish a position.

EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) Stopped @ $23.60 for a 3.91% loss

– Same situation here, the dip buyers came in to support, but at a much lower point than my stop.

Gold is moving into the corrective territory I want, but before I try to pick a bottom, I want to see it move back in the direction of it’s short term trend. The same goes with JNUG.

UGAZ broke it’s level of support today, going to put in a safe bet to try and catch a rebound and play it to the downside in DGAZ.

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 1/30/15


 

Sell EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) Limit @ $11.85
Sell EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) Stop @ $11.50

– Japan continues to move against the global markets in an upward direction. This is a non-leveraged ETF, so the upside/downside potential is minimized and we can stand to hang in through some small corrections for the larger possible move.

Open Orders for 1/30/15


Buy DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Limit @ $7.10
Sell DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas) Limit @ $8.20

– Despite volatility in the other markets, UGAZ (Natural Gas) is entering new low territory. When a stock can show conviction that it can enter new territory that’s when the real movements occur.

Chart of UGAZ (Natural Gas) breaking below it’s area of support

UGAZ 1-29-15

Chart of where I want to be in DGAZ (Inverse Natural Gas)

DGAZ 1-29-15

Order Cancels Order
Buy EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) Limit @ $23.75
Buy YINN (China) Limit @ $36.30

– Because China is a big part of the EDC ETF, I only want in on one of these. After today’s huge recovery, this could be the dip buying opportunity I was hoping to get in on. I’ve also been able to redraw a channel in EDC instead of a triangle. Today’s bounce works perfectly with a bounce off the bottom upward trendline.

Chart of EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) with updated trendlines

EDC 1-29-15

Chart of  YINN (China)

YINN 1-29-15

Buy EURL (Europe) @ $30.30

– Yesterday was another shakeout with a huge intraday drop. With today’s gap up, this may be the continued trend I was trying to get into originally.

EURL 1-29-15

Buy JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) @ $24.15
Sell JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) @ $26.70

– Buying on a possible 3rd day dip in JNUG and selling for a 10% intraday profit if it hits. The strategy would have worked today, but I was more bullish on gold and was looking for the drop in JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners).

JNUG 1-29-15

1-29-15 – Trading Strategy

1-29-15 – Trading Strategy

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

1/21/15 – EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) @ $11.35
1/27/15 – EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) @ $24.56
1/28/15 – YINN (China) @ $37.90

Today’s Updates


EURL (Europe) Stopped @ $29.45 for a 3.6% loss

YINN (China) Filled @ $37.90

Again, global markets moved in unison today except bonds (TMF). The volatility in these markets is just too unpredictable. I am going to try and manage existing positions only for the remainder of this week and will most likely not take on anything new unless there is a more obvious trade setup.

B12 Markets 1-28-15

As we near the end of the month, it’s clear January 2015 will go down in the books as a negative month. The tight stops have managed the porfolio as well, it was the big risk I took on the two trades in JNUG (Junior Gold Miners) and RUSL (Russia)  which have very high ATR %. If those two trades never occurred, January will still have held on to some profits.

** This is a valuable lesson on why you must stay disciplined in your trading. I veered off and took a risk that even I warned against and it didn’t work out in my favor. It worked against me so much that it cost any potential profits I would have had for this month **

The fix? Simple, keep trading with tight stop buy orders so the trades that ARE profitable, will be enough to keep the month profitable.

 

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 1/29/15


 

Sell EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) Limit @ $26.00
Sell EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) Stop @ $23.60

– Stops *always* stay the same or they are raised, they are never lowered. Today’s low was close to my stop, but didn’t trigger. It could easily trigger lower tomorrow because of how close we are, but that’s why there is such an important on a good entry price.

Sell EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) Limit @ $11.80
Sell EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) Stop @ $11.45

– Very little movement today in Japan, so no changes.

Sell YINN (China) Limit @ $39.60
Sell YINN (China) Stop @ $36.40

– Order was filled today on the 4th down day, these are the kind of fills I like, because if we are still in an uptrend, then tomorrow will be an up day and we’ll be managing profits quickly. Otherwise, I’m giving it 8 cents lower than today’s low of $36.40 as my stop.

** Here is the most difficult decision as a trader, where to place your stop. No matter how many years of experience you have, there is no “right” way to do it. Everyone’s stops are different, especially because everyone has a different entry price. However, with this big dip in China, the “dip buyers” would be coming in about now.  **

If we are reversing direction completely, it shouldn’t take much to take out our stop and keep falling further.

Open Orders for 1/29/15


– No new orders for today. Unless a trade jumps out at me tomorrow or Friday, I will try and let this market settle and show some direction. It’s always healthy to put on the breaks and back off a bit when the markets flop around like this.

 

1-28-15 – Trading Strategy

1-28-15 – Trading Strategy

Current Holdings


Real time portfolio updates are now available here

1/21/15 – EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) @ $11.35
1/27/15 – EURL (Europe) @ $30.55
1/27/15 – EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) @ $24.56

Today’s Updates


RUSS (Inverse Russia) Stopped @ $21.45 for a 1.7% gain
– It looked like RUSS was going to be a good hedge against the loss in RUSL, but with today’s gap lower, practically all the profits made yesterday were wiped out and I was left with a small gain.

EURL (Europe) filled @ $30.55

EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) Filled @ $24.56

– Still going to maintain volatility trades for tomorrow. Too much could happen on the final day of the FOMC meetings.

Current Holdings with Open Orders for 1/28/15


 

Sell EURL (Europe) Limit @ $32.20
Sell EURL (Europe) Stop @ $29.50

– Sell limit at 5% profit for any quick movements, otherwise I’m keeping the stop at 1.5x the daily ATR because this could be more of a longer term play and needs some room to wigle. At 1.5x ATR I’m allowing a loss of 3.4% max.

Sell EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) Limit @ $26.00
Sell EDC (Emerging Growth Markets) Stop @ $23.60

– Sell limit at around 5% profit again for any quick movements. My strategy is usually 5% day one, 10% day two, and 12-15% day 3 to capture any very fast movements. Otherwise the goal is to hold on until there is some type of technical invalidation if I don’t hit my target profit %. Giving a 1.5x ATR stop limit which is allowing a loss of 4% max loss.

Sell EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) Limit @ $11.80
Sell EWJ (Non Leveraged Japan) Stop @ $11.45

– Japan barely budged today, keeping same limit/stop orders as yesterday

Open Orders for 1/28/15


 

Buy JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) @ $6.30
Sell JDST (Inverse Junior Gold Miners) @ $7.00

– JNUG went up today, and any surprise announcement from the fed could send gold into a volatile spike up or down. Because JNUG has been up for two days, if it spikes intraday, I’ll get a good fill on JDST which will be lower and put me in at a safe cushion for a rebound.

JDST 1-27-15

Buy RUSS (Inverse Russia) @ $15.75
Sell RUSS (Inverse Russia) @ $18.20

– The overall trend in Russia continues to remain down, so today’s movement up is most likely a quick rebound from the over extended downward movement from yesterday. If Russia goes up beyond 1.4x it’s daily trading range tomorrow, I’ll get into RUSS for the counter trend play. This will follow the trend downward, but as I look more at the chart for RUSL, we may not be in a triangle any longer (It broke out twice and never continued) so we are probably in a sideways consolidation, so this means we will bounce off resistance more reliably.

These are safer trades because if I get in at these extremes, I will put in very tight stops to limit losses, but have much greater profit potentials.

Here is how I see Russia’s chart now:

RUSL 1-27-15

Here is where I am trying to get in on RUSS (Inverse Russia)

RUSS 1-27-15

Buy YINN (China) @ $37.90

– Looks like China is having some healthy corrections. We are back to the 20-day moving average, but with the large gap down today it did turn PPO negative. I want to be in when PPO is positive, so I’m bidding just above today’s low to build in that cushion. Hopefully it won’t be like last week in which I miss it by a few pennies.

YINN 1-27-15

 

 

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